Spatial-temporal Changes and Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction of “Production-living-ecological Space” Pattern in Western Jilin Province

Yu-xin DENG , Wen-xin LIU

Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2026, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (15) : 6648 -6658.

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Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2026, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (15) : 6648-6658 DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2503338
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Spatial-temporal Changes and Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction of “Production-living-ecological Space” Pattern in Western Jilin Province
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Abstract

To optimize the territorial spatial development pattern and promote regional sustainable development in Western Jilin Province, Basing on three phases of land use data (2000, 2010, and 2020) in Western Jilin Province, land use transfer matrix, dynamic degree model, and PLUS(patch-generating land use simulation) model were employed to analyze the evolution characteristics of regional “production-living-ecological Space”, simulate land use patterns under four scenarios, natural development, grain priority, ecological priority, and balanced development, and reveal the evolution trends of land use patterns under different policy orientations. On this basis, combined with MOP(multi-objective optimization problem) model, an optimized pattern under sustainable development scenario was proposed. The results show that the land use transformation in Western Jilin Province from 2000 to 2020 is characterized by the expansion of production and living spaces and the reduction of ecological space. Under the natural development scenario, the conflict between production space and ecological space intensifies; the grain priority scenario exacerbates the contraction of ecological space; while the ecological priority and balanced development scenarios can alleviate ecological pressure, the expansion of ecological space mainly comes from unused land, and the contradiction between production space and ecological space is not alleviated. Under the sustainable development scenario with the scale of unused land unchanged, the economic benefit of territorial space utilization in Western Jilin Province is ¥8.21×1012, and the ecological benefit is ¥3.70×1010. The production space and living space expand by 1048.14 km2 and 212.24 km2 respectively, and the reduction of ecological space is alleviated with an increase of 435.90 km2. Maintaining this development model in the long term can effectively optimize the spatial pattern of Western Jilin Province and adjust regional development imbalance, which can provide reference for the future sustainable development of Western Jilin Province. It’s suggested that in the future, efforts should be made to further enhance the sustainability of regional development, strictly control the unordered expansion of cultivated land, and scientifically regulate the direction and intensity of land use conversion, so as to realize the dynamic balance of “production-living-ecological space” in western Jilin Province.

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production-living-ecological space / PLUS model / MOP model / multi-scenario simulation / Western Jilin Province

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Yu-xin DENG, Wen-xin LIU. Spatial-temporal Changes and Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction of “Production-living-ecological Space” Pattern in Western Jilin Province. Science Technology and Engineering, 2026, 26(15): 6648-6658 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2503338

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