
科学技术与工程

中国技术经济学会
Time-shared Power Prediction Based on Quadratic Decomposition and TSO-TCN
Yong-li WANG , Yi-ming LI , Zi-xin YAN , Xue-feng BAI , Xiang-peng ZHAN , Chuan-bo TIAN , Cong-cong DU , Ying ZHOU
Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2026, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (4) : 1509 -1517.
Time-shared electricity is a non-stationary series with trend characteristics,seasonal characteristics and stochastic characteristics,and the prediction using traditional forecasting methods will cause large errors. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of time-shared power under complex features,a power prediction model based on quadratic decomposition and tuna swarm optimization-temporal convolutional network (TSO-TCN) was proposed. Firstly,the original power data were decomposed using variational nonlinear chirp mode decomposition (VNCMD),denoised based on correlation analysis and improved wavelet thresholding denoising,and then the denoised data were subjected to symplectic geometry mode decomposition (SGMD) to obtain the component sequences. Secondly,K-Mean clustering was adopted to merge the component sequences,and TSO-TCN prediction models were established to predict the clustered component sequences. Finally,the final prediction result was determined by cumulative summation. The experimental results show that the proposed method has good prediction accuracy and provides a new idea for the traditional decomposition-integration prediction method.
feature extraction / cluster analysis / variational nonlinear chirp mode decomposition (VNCMD) / symplectic geometry mode decomposition (SGMD) / temporal convolutional network(TCN)
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