To investigate the damage states and failure probabilities of prefabricated concrete-filled steel tubular circular bridge piers under seismic loading, the design of two types of bridge piers—prefabricated concrete-filled steel tubular and prefabricated reinforced concrete—was undertaken. Damage states for both types were classified based on phenomena observed during quasi-static tests. Finite element models of the piers were created using ABAQUS finite element software. These models were subsequently calibrated against quasi-static test results to verify their accuracy. Finally, a seismic vulnerability analysis was performed employing the IDA (incremental dynamic analysis) method, whereby the pier’s top displacement served as the damage indicator.The results indicate that, under the same PGA (peak ground acceleration), the presence of the steel tube in the prefabricated concrete-filled steel tubular bridge piers increases the pier’s stiffness. The encasing steel tube also applies a confinement effect on the core concrete, reducing the exceedance probabilities of damage states such as “slight, moderate, severe, collapse” to varying degrees, demonstrating that the encasing steel tube significantly enhances the pier’s resistance to seismic loading. Under high-intensity seismic conditions, the difference in exceedance probabilities between “severe” and “collapse” damage states for the prefabricated concrete-filled steel tubular bridge piers and the prefabricated reinforced concrete bridge piers increases as the peak ground acceleration increases. This indicates that, under strong seismic effects, the role of the encasing steel tube in improving the pier’s seismic performance becomes more pronounced. The prefabricated concrete-filled steel tubular bridge piers exhibit a large reserve of ductility under seismic forces, enabling them to better resist seismic loading.