Glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs) are recognized as a significant threat to downstream infrastructure and human safety, making the development of effective identification methods crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. A novel approach for GLOF identification was proposed, based on risk source analysis and power mechanism simulation. Jionglacuo glacial lake was selected as a case study, through which the dynamic changes in glacial lake morphology and moraine dam structure were investigated. A comprehensive identification of key risk sources potentially triggering GLOFs was conducted, and theoretical models were employed to calculate potential volumes from various sources, including debris slopes, lateral moraine ridge collapses, subglacial lake outbursts, and glacier calving. The r. avaflow physical model was subsequently utilized to simulate potential GLOF scenarios. The results reveal that Jionglacuo glacial lake has undergone significant expansion, with its area being observed to increase from 1.82 km² in 1988 to 5.34 km² in 2020, representing a 2.93-fold enlargement. Quantitative analysis of four primary risk sources is performed, and potential volumes are determined as follows: debris slopes and lateral moraine ridge collapses (95.445 million m³), glacial debris flow (2.182 million m³), subglacial lake outburst (0.45 million ~ 2.7 million m³), and parent glacier (24.06 million m³). Glacial breakage scenarios are simulated under two conditions: in Condition 1, the volume of the breakage glacier is estimated to be approximately 24.06 million m³, while in Condition 2, the volume of the resulting glacial debris flow is calculated to be approximately 10.64 million m³. Potential peak flows are estimated to be 5 133.17 m³/s in Jinling Township and 3 219.31 m³/s in Tongdong Village for Condition 1, while for Condition 2, the values are calculated to be 2 332.12 m³/s and 452.93 m³/s, respectively. These findings are considered to propose a novel methodology for the identification of risk in moraine lakes in the Jionglacuo moraine lake, thereby providing a theoretical foundation for the future management of disasters and their prevention and mitigation in the Xiaqu Basin of southeastern Tibet.