Modeling and Stability Analysis of Stochastic Systems in Wind Farms Based on Nataf and LSTM Methods

Jian-jun DENG , Shi-xun MO , Bin LIU , Mu ZHANG , Jin-xin ZHANG

Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (18) : 7650 -7658.

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Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (18) : 7650-7658 DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2409028
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Modeling and Stability Analysis of Stochastic Systems in Wind Farms Based on Nataf and LSTM Methods
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Abstract

In recent years, the scale of wind turbine grid connection has been increasing, for the deep learning of wind speed prediction requires a large amount of data, as well as stochastic differential equations for wind power system modeling fail to portray the impact of wind speed correlation on the output power and grid-connection point voltage, a Markov switching stochastic differential equation modeling method considering stochastic factors and wind speed correlation was proposed for power systems containing wind power. The Nataf and LSTM were introduced to construct the wind speed spatio-temporal correlation model, the Markov switching stochastic differential equation was used to segment and linearize the wind power system into various linear segments. Then the effects of wind speed correlation and stochastic excitation strength on the voltage at the grid-connection point were studied, and the critical stable excitation strength of the wind power system was analyzed. Finally, the stochastic simulation of the constructed system model was carried out by numerical analysis methods, and the results show that the system state variable fluctuates in the stable region within the critical value of the random excitation intensity, and the comparison with the stable waveform of voltage in the Simulink simulation circuit verifies the validity of the modeling method in this paper, and provides a theoretical basis for the stability analysis of the new wind farm access to the power system.

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wind speed correlation / long short-term memory network / Markov switching stochastic differential equation / stochastic stabilizatio

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Jian-jun DENG, Shi-xun MO, Bin LIU, Mu ZHANG, Jin-xin ZHANG. Modeling and Stability Analysis of Stochastic Systems in Wind Farms Based on Nataf and LSTM Methods. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025, 25(18): 7650-7658 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2409028

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