
科学技术与工程

中国技术经济学会
Factors Affecting the Temporary Plugging Effect of Tight Sandstone Gas Based on Random Forest and SHAP Algorithm
Hao HUANG , Heng-da CHE , Xiang-wei KONG , Fu-bin XIN , Jiu-zhou XIANG , Jun-jie JI
Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (26) : 11135 -11143.
In order to deeply study the influence of geological factors, segmentation and injection parameters, and fracturing construction factors on the temporary plugging effect between clusters, 76 sets of data of temporary plugging wells were collected from Sulig block by constructing a quantitative model and formula of temporary plugging effect, and a temporary plugging effect algorithm model was established by integrating random forest and SHAP value algorithm. After verifying the quantitative model and formula of temporary plugging effect and the model of temporary plugging effect algorithm, it is found that the quantitative value of temporary plugging effect is positively correlated with the contribution rate of gas production, with a P-value of 0.037, which proves that the accuracy of the quantitative model and formula of temporary plugging effect is high. And because the differences between the MSE, MAE, and R2 of the training set and the test set of the model of temporary plugging effect algorithm are tiny, it proves that the model has a strong ability of generalization and is highly accurate. On the basis of the temporary plugging effect algorithm model, the analysis of the influence factors of temporary plugging effect was carried out, and the results show that the five factors, namely, the total number of segments, permeability, the number of temporary plugging balls, the cluster spacing and the sand ratio, have the largest proportion of influence on the temporary plugging effect. Further analysis of the single influencing factors shows that the increase in plugging effect with the increase in the total number of sections is only applicable to straight wells, but not to horizontal wells. The increase in permeability results in a deterioration of the plugging effect. The number of plugging spheres < 50, cluster spacing > 20 m, and the sand ratio of 18% to 20% can achieve a positive increase in the plugging effect. The results of this study can provide a reference for the design of temporary plugging operation in Sulig Gas Field.
Sulige Gas Field / tight sandstone gas / temporary plugging effect / random forest / SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) value / model interpretation
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