
科学技术与工程

中国技术经济学会
Uncertainty Analysis of Dispatchable Potential of Charging Stations Considering Randomness of Electric Vehicle Charging Time
Ting YI , Bin LI , Lin-ru JIANG , Fu-zhang WU , Jun YANG
Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (20) : 8526 -8535.
The dispatchable potential of charging stations represents the feasible solution space for optimizing their bidding strategies in the electricity market. However, the uncertainty in the access times of electric vehicles complicates the accurate assessment of this dispatchable potential. To address this issue, an uncertainty analysis method was proposed for evaluating the dispatchable potential of charging stations, taking into account the stochastic nature of electric vehicle charging times. Firstly, a generalized energy storage model for various types of electric vehicle clusters was established using Minkowski summation theory. Secondly, the impact of the randomness in electric vehicle arrival and departure times on the dispatchable potential of charging stations was analyzed. The discretized probability density functions of these times were mapped to the probability distributions of individual electric vehicle model parameters. By integrating these with the generalized energy storage model of electric vehicle clusters, the probabilistic characteristics of the dispatchable potential across various electric vehicle clusters were derived. Furthermore, the probability distribution characteristics of the dispatchable potential of charging stations were derived by aggregating the parameters of various electric vehicle clusters using convolution operations. Finally, simulations were conducted in MATLAB and compared with Monte Carlo simulations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
electric vehicle / dispatchable potential / charging time / Edgeworth series / probability distributions
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