Daily Precipitation Forecasting Using Global Weather Model and Regional Pre-training Optimization: A Case Study in Shaanxi Province

Hao-yu WANG , Ling HAN , Liang-zhi LI

Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (20) : 8379 -8391.

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Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (20) : 8379-8391 DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2406929
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Daily Precipitation Forecasting Using Global Weather Model and Regional Pre-training Optimization: A Case Study in Shaanxi Province
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Abstract

To improve the accuracy of precipitation forecasts and address the limitations of traditional numerical weather prediction models in forecast precision and computational efficiency, a meteorological large model was combined with a deep learning post-processing approach was combined. A case study was conducted for precipitation forecasts over Shaanxi Province during 2008—2018. Based on meteorological variable fields output by the FourCastNet model, a pre-trained model mapping meteorological fields to regional precipitation was constructed using Bayesian-optimized convolutional neural networks (CNN)/long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. The results indicate that this method outperforms traditional numerical weather prediction models in terms of spatial resolution and forecast accuracy. The regionally fine-tuned forecasts more accurately capture the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation. Furthermore, the Bayesian-optimized deep learning post-processing algorithm effectively mitigates the impact of initial field biases on forecast results. These findings demonstrate the significant potential of integrating meteorological large models with deep learning post-processing algorithms for accurate precipitation forecasting, providing scientific support for disaster prevention, agricultural production, and water resource management.

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precipitation forecasting / deep learning / large meteorological models / pre-training

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Hao-yu WANG, Ling HAN, Liang-zhi LI. Daily Precipitation Forecasting Using Global Weather Model and Regional Pre-training Optimization: A Case Study in Shaanxi Province. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025, 25(20): 8379-8391 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2406929

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