XGBoost-Artifical Neural Networks for Secondary Return Water Temperature Prediction in Thermal Stations

Dong WEI , Chuan MA , Jian-min MA

Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (17) : 7226 -7237.

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Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (17) : 7226-7237 DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404981
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XGBoost-Artifical Neural Networks for Secondary Return Water Temperature Prediction in Thermal Stations
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Abstract

To address the challenges of high-dimensional features, large computational demand, and difficulty in improving the accuracy of secondary return water temperature prediction models for heat stations, a secondary return water temperature prediction model based on the xtreme gradient boosting-artifical neural network(XGBoost-ANN) was proposed. The feature screening layer uses XGBoost algorithm to calculate the importance scores of the original data features and determine the main features that affect the secondary backwater temperature, thus reducing the complexity of the model and improving the computational efficiency. Three layers of feedforward ANN were trained by Bayesian regularization algorithm as the secondary backwater temperature prediction layer, and the initial weights and thresholds of the ANN model were optimized by grey wolf optimizer (GWO) algorithm. The weights and thresholds of the ANN model were represented by grey wolf position vector. The fitness function was introduced to evaluate the performance of each set of weights and thresholds to help the model avoid falling into local optimality at the initial stage of training, so as to improve the performance and generalization ability of the model. Experimental results demonstrate that the constructed XGBoost-GWO-ANN secondary return water temperature prediction model achieved significant improvements. Compared to the model before feature filtering, the root mean squared error(RMSE) is reduced by 26.8%, the R2 is increased by 11.3%, and the model inference time is shortened by 46.1%. Furthermore, the optimization of the initial ANN weights and thresholds using the GWO algorithm improve the RMSE by 20.0% and the R2 by 3.4% compared to the unoptimized ANN model. These results indicate that the accuracy and generalization ability of the proposed prediction model are effectively enhanced.

Keywords

centralized heating / heat station system / neural network / XGBoost / secondary return water temperature prediction

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Dong WEI, Chuan MA, Jian-min MA. XGBoost-Artifical Neural Networks for Secondary Return Water Temperature Prediction in Thermal Stations. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025, 25(17): 7226-7237 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404981

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