
科学技术与工程

中国技术经济学会
NGO-CNN-LSTM Power Load Short-term Combination Forecasting Model Based on ALIF-VMD Quadratic Decomposition
Lin ZHANG , Sheng-qiang GAO , Yu SONG , Shuai-yu BU , Wei YU
Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (11) : 4583 -4597.
Aiming at obvious load fluctuation trend, strong randomness and low accuracy caused by unreasonable parameter values of the prediction model involved into the power load forecasting process, a combined prediction model composing of ALIF (adaptive local iterative filtering), VMD (variational mode decomposition), NGO (northern goshawk optimization) and CNN-LSTM (convolutional neural networks - long short-term memory) was established. Firstly, CCM (convergent cross-mapping) method was used to identify the key factors affecting the power load. Secondly, an innovative combination of ALIF, NGO-based VMD and FE (fuzzy entropy) was employed for combinatorial decomposition and necessary recombination of original load sequence. Next, based on the modal components generated after decomposition and recombination, combined with optimal hyperparameter combination of CNN-LSTM determined by NGO method, an NGO-CNN-LSTM day-ahead power load combination prediction model with the high prediction accuracy, short training time and fast convergence speed was formulated. Compared with other benchmark models, the obtained results demonstrated that the proposed model has the better adaptability and prediction accuracy, and can provide important technical support for the safe, reliable and economical operation of power system.
load forecasting / sequence decomposition and recombination / northern goshawk optimization / convolutional neural network-long short-term memory neural network model
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |