Fuel Consumption Prediction of General Aviation Aircraft Based on Regression Tree and Random Forest

Ming-qiang CHEN , Wen-hao ZHENG , Yan-jun SUN , Hao-dong LIN , Zhong-hang DUAN

Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (7) : 3026 -3034.

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Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (7) : 3026-3034 DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403356
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Fuel Consumption Prediction of General Aviation Aircraft Based on Regression Tree and Random Forest
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Abstract

The selection of variables affecting fuel consumption in the existing studies usually has no clear criteria, and it is difficult to combine the research results with actual flight. The flight training data of a Cessna 172 was used to predict the fuel consumption during the airborne phase of general aviation trainer aircraft. Firstly, based on the authors' flight experience as well as correlation analysis, the features that influence fuel flow rate were selected from the pilot's operational perspective. Secondly, a regression tree model was used to predict fuel flow rate under different flight conditions, correlating the aircraft's actual flight status with the predicted fuel flow rate, in order to facilitate subsequent research on specific fuel-saving strategies from the flight technique perspective. Finally, a random forest model optimized with hyperparameter tuning was used to predict the fuel flow rate. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the model used is better than that of the existing research results, with a mean absolute error of 0.286 gallon/h, a root mean squared error of 0.496 gallon/h, a residual sum of squares of 0.968 4, and a mean absolute percentage error of 4.00%.

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regression tree / random forest / machine learning / fuel flow rate prediction / Cessna 172 / data recording system

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Ming-qiang CHEN, Wen-hao ZHENG, Yan-jun SUN, Hao-dong LIN, Zhong-hang DUAN. Fuel Consumption Prediction of General Aviation Aircraft Based on Regression Tree and Random Forest. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025, 25(7): 3026-3034 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403356

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