
科学技术与工程

中国技术经济学会
Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility in Xinyuan County Based on Machine Learning Models
Xu-shan YUAN , Jing-hui LIU , Long-sheng HUANG , Xin-xu LI
Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (5) : 1815 -1826.
Landslide disasters pose a serious threat to residents' lives and socio-economic development. Taking Xinyuan County as the study area, 17 landslide influencing factors were selected as the initial factor set. Through multiple collinearity analysis, 10 landslide factors were screened and an evaluation index system for landslide susceptibility in the study area was constructed. The landslide susceptibility was then evaluated based on three typical models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF). The evaluation results of the model were compared and validated using the area under curve (AUC), landslide ratio, and field investigation under the receiver operating characteristics(ROC) curve. The results show that low-susceptibility areas are mainly concentrated in the valley plain of the Kongnais River, where the terrain is flat and the landslide susceptibility is relatively low. High-susceptibility areas are mainly located in the northern part of the Kongnais River valley, the Awulale hilly area, and the watersheds on both sides of the southern Yishikelike Mountains and Nalati Mountains, as well as the area south of the Qiafu River, where the terrain is complex and varied, leading to a higher susceptibility to landslides. Among the three evaluation models, the SVM model performs the best, with an AUC value of up to 0.985, indicating its high accuracy in landslide susceptibility assessment. Furthermore, the high-susceptibility areas identified by the SVM model have a high density of landslide points, accounting for 86% of the total, further validating its effectiveness in landslide susceptibility assessment. Based on the above results, the SVM model is more reasonable than the other two alrorithms in assessing landslide susceptibility in Xinyuan County, providing a scientific theoretical basis and reference for landslide prevention and control in the region.
logistic regression / support vector machine / random forest / landslide susceptibility / Xinyuan County
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