A Distributed Photovoltaic Aggregation Uncertainty Characterization Method Based on Quantile Spatial-temporal Graph Neural Network

Zeng ZENG , Mao-ran XIAO , Yuan-yi XIA , Zhen ZHANG , Jun-jie YIN , Yi-tuan YU , Rui ZHANG , Chun-xia DOU

Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2024, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (34) : 14726 -14733.

PDF
Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2024, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (34) : 14726-14733 DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402290
research-article
A Distributed Photovoltaic Aggregation Uncertainty Characterization Method Based on Quantile Spatial-temporal Graph Neural Network
Author information +
History +
PDF

Abstract

The quantification of uncertainty in aggregated distributed photovoltaic power generation is crucial for decision control in power systems. A data-driven aggregation quantification method for power uncertainty in distributed photovoltaic power generation was proposed. Firstly, considering the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of distributed photovoltaics, an uncertainty aggregation model based on spatial-temporal graph convolutional neural networks was proposed, which can effectively mine the spatial-temporal characteristics of data. Secondly, aggregated uncertainty was quantified and characterized without assuming its probability distribution through the combination of spatial-temporal graph convolutional neural networks with quantile regression models. In addition, considering the cross problem of quantiles, a quantile mapping method to avoid the cross problem of quantized results with aggregated uncertainty was proposed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified based on the IEEE-33 bus system.

Keywords

distributed photovoltaic / uncertainty / graph neural network / quantile regression / data-driven

Cite this article

Download citation ▾
Zeng ZENG, Mao-ran XIAO, Yuan-yi XIA, Zhen ZHANG, Jun-jie YIN, Yi-tuan YU, Rui ZHANG, Chun-xia DOU. A Distributed Photovoltaic Aggregation Uncertainty Characterization Method Based on Quantile Spatial-temporal Graph Neural Network. Science Technology and Engineering, 2024, 24(34): 14726-14733 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402290

登录浏览全文

4963

注册一个新账户 忘记密码

References

Funding

PDF (5841KB)

18

Accesses

0

Citation

Detail

Sections
Recommended

/

〈 〉