
科学技术与工程

中国技术经济学会
A Distributed Photovoltaic Aggregation Uncertainty Characterization Method Based on Quantile Spatial-temporal Graph Neural Network
Zeng ZENG , Mao-ran XIAO , Yuan-yi XIA , Zhen ZHANG , Jun-jie YIN , Yi-tuan YU , Rui ZHANG , Chun-xia DOU
Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2024, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (34) : 14726 -14733.
The quantification of uncertainty in aggregated distributed photovoltaic power generation is crucial for decision control in power systems. A data-driven aggregation quantification method for power uncertainty in distributed photovoltaic power generation was proposed. Firstly, considering the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of distributed photovoltaics, an uncertainty aggregation model based on spatial-temporal graph convolutional neural networks was proposed, which can effectively mine the spatial-temporal characteristics of data. Secondly, aggregated uncertainty was quantified and characterized without assuming its probability distribution through the combination of spatial-temporal graph convolutional neural networks with quantile regression models. In addition, considering the cross problem of quantiles, a quantile mapping method to avoid the cross problem of quantized results with aggregated uncertainty was proposed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified based on the IEEE-33 bus system.
distributed photovoltaic / uncertainty / graph neural network / quantile regression / data-driven
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