
科学技术与工程

中国技术经济学会
Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation Based on the Data-Driven Polynomial Chaos Approximation
Ao-yu LEI , You-jin JIANG , Cheng-xi LIU , Yong MEI , Yong-jian LUO , Hong-yue ZHEN
Science Technology and Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (2) : 598 -609.
In order to analyze the influence of uncertain factors on power system, PCA (polynomial chaos approximation) method, which is both fast and accurate, is widely used in probabilistic power flow calculation. The polynomial chaotic approximation method requires that the probability density function of the random input variable is known, and the random input variable must satisfy the independent condition. A probabilistic power flow method based on DDPCA (data driven polynomial chaos approximation) was proposed for the known random input variables which are historical data. First, DDPCA selects the optimal orthogonal polynomial according to the historical data, and then determines the Gaussian sample considering the nonlinear correlation of random input variables, and then computes the weights with Monte Carlo integral. Then, a small amount of power flow was calculated based on Gaussian samples, and the approximation coefficient was solved according to the power flow results and weights, and then the statistical characteristics of the random output variables were obtained. The proposed method was compared with the point estimation method, and the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by the results of three examples.
data-driven / polynomial chaos approximation / Gaussian samples / probabilistic power flow / Monte Carlo integral / nonlinear correlation
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