The measured data of internal movement and deformation of the overburden are insufficient, the prediction is difficult and the reliability is low. A method was constructed based on geometric similarity characteristics to predict the internal movement and deformation of the overlying rock using measured surface subsidence data. This method considered the expansion and compression resulting from the movement and deformation of the overlying rock after coal mining. The research shows that when predicting the internal movement and deformation of the overlying rock near the surface. the expansion and compression of the rock can be disregarded. However, when predicting the internal movement and deformation near the mining coal seam, the expansion and compression need to be considered. Near the mining boundary, the expansion and compression can be disregarded, but in the center of the mining area, they need to be considered. The research results contribute to the green and safe mining of coal.