The accuracy of evaluating the anti-missile interception capability of aircraft carrier formations will have an impact on our analysis of the effectiveness of missile breakthrough operations and mission planning. Therefore, a efficacy evaluation model for integrated anti-missile defense in aircraft carrier formations was developed and analyzed through simulation. A typical US aircraft carrier battle group was used as the research object to analyze its defensive anti-missile system architecture and operational processes. Mechanism analysis, model construction and optimization were conducted on key elements such as detection radar, interception missiles, dense arrays, and jamming devices based on crucial parameters. Furthermore, each system's efficacy probability and joint anti-missile probability were analyzed by incorporating blue force incoming weapon status parameters. Finally, the validity of the model was verified using a typical formation of an aircraft carrier as an example to evaluate the effectiveness of the anti-missile defense. The simulation results show that when the carrier formation effectively detects the incoming bombs with flying speed lower than Mach 12 at a distance of more than 200km, its anti-missile success rate can reach more than 90%.