In order to scientifically evaluate the traffic safety risk to non-motorized vehicles caused by the setting of right-turn channelized island at signalized intersections, the video of five signalized intersections in Nanchang was collected in the field, and the conflicts data between motor and non-motor vehicle in the area of right-turn channelized island at each intersection, geometric design characteristics of intersections, intersection channelization treatment and traffic flow characteristics were extracted. The improved TTC (time to collision) index was used to determine the traffic conflicts, and a total of 304 traffic conflicts were obtained. Based on the Bayesian method, a random-effect conflict model was constructed to take into account the heterogeneity of different intersections. The fit of the random-effect and fixed-effect negative binomial models was compared and the significant influencing factors were analyzed. Based on the random-effect model, the formula for calculating the number of expected conflicts between motor and non-motor vehicle was determined and the standard curves for the setting of channelized island were plotted under different traffic conditions and a case description was provided. It is concluded that the random-effects model has a better fit for conflicts between motor and non-motor vehicle than the fixed-effects model. Compared with the intersection without channelized islands, the installation of paint and raised channelized islands will increase traffic conflicts by 38% and 61.4% respectively, each 1% increase in the volume of right-turning motor vehicle traffic, the volume of crossing non-motor vehicle traffic and the number of illegal non-motor vehicle movements will lead to an increase in conflicts between motor and non-motor vehicle by 0.85%, 0.44% and 0.18% respectively. A 1% increase in the average speed of right-turning motor vehicles would result in a 2.5% reduction in the conflicts. The research results provide effective ideas for quantitatively analyzing the impact elements of traffic conflicts, which can provide theoretical support for the traffic design of right-turn channelized islands.