
科学技术与工程

中国技术经济学会
犯罪出行视角下地理单元构建方法及对犯罪分布分析的影响
Geographic Unit Construction Method from the Crime Travel Perspective and Its Impact on Crime Distribution Analysis
空间地理单元构建是犯罪分布研究的前提与基础,从犯罪人出行的视角,构建地理单元,有利于更好地发现犯罪人选择作案地的决定因素。当前大多在行政区划、规则格网、道路等地理单元的基础上,研究犯罪时空分布及其影响因素;然而,这些研究均没有考虑犯罪人出行的空间特点。基于此,面向犯罪出行,提出了一种新地理单元的构建方法,并探讨其对街面盗窃犯罪分布的影响。首先,梳理了犯罪出行的空间特征,提出了一种以地铁站、公交车站为基准点的新地理单元构建方法;其次,以北京市朝阳区为例开展实证研究。从犯罪人视角梳理环境因素并提出影响出行决策的犯罪感知因素,对比分析了本文地理单元和传统行政区划地理单元下感知因素对街面盗窃犯罪分布的影响。结果发现,使用提出的地理单元模型效能、预测效果、感知因素解释水平均强于行政区划单元,更能体现空间异质性和人口流动对犯罪的影响。提出的面向犯罪出行的地理单元能够更好地反映犯罪出行模式,解释犯罪分布原因,丰富了犯罪地理领域的研究。
The construction of spatial geographic units is regarded as a prerequisite and foundation for the study of crime distribution. Geographic units, when constructed from the criminal travel perspective are considered conducive to a better understanding of the determinants influencing criminals' choices of crime locations. Current research on the spatiotemporal distribution of crime and its influencing factors is predominantly based on administrative divisions, grids, and roads; however, the spatial characteristics of criminal travel are not addressed in these studies. To address this gap, a new method for constructing geographic units oriented towards criminal travel was proposed, and its impact on the distribution of street thefts was discussed. Firstly, the spatial characteristics of criminal travel were reviewed, and a new method for constructing geographic units based on subway stations and bus stops as reference points was proposed. Secondly, an empirical study was conducted using Chaoyang District in Beijing as a case study. From the criminal's perspective, environmental factors were sorted out, and criminal perception factors affecting travel decisions were identified. A comparative Analysis was performed to assess the impact of perception factors on street theft distribution between the proposed geographic units and traditional administrative division units. Results indicate that the model efficiency, predictive effect, and explanatory level of perception factors using the geographic units are all stronger than those of administrative division units. The proposed geographic units are shown to better capture spatial heterogeneity and the influence of population flow on crime. The geographic units oriented towards criminal travel proposed can better reflect patterns of criminal travel, explain the reasons for crime distribution, and enrich research in the field of criminal geography.
criminal travel / geographic unit construction / street thefts / crime perception
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