甘肃境内黑河流域面临严峻的水资源短缺问题，利用水资源承载力指标评估水资源短缺状况，对水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。构建了甘肃境内黑河流域水资源承载力评价指标体系，基于熵权法为各指标赋权，采用模糊综合评价法和TOPSIS （technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution）模型进行甘肃境内黑河流域2011—2022年水资源承载力评估及验证分析，并采用灰色模型对2023—2030年水资源承载力进行预测。结果表明：①2011—2022年甘肃境内黑河流域水资源承载力呈现波动上升态势，水资源承载力状态趋于转好；②模糊综合评价及TOPSIS模型综合评价均值分别为0.406、0.438，整体处于临界承载状态；③产水模数（8.677%）、年降水量（7.496%）、年径流量（5.381%）等水资源指标，人口密度（14.523%）、林牧渔畜耗水量（9.181%）、万元GDP用水量（6.037%）、国内生产总值（4.088%）等社会经济指标，生态环境用水效率（6.724%）、节水灌溉面积（3.721%）等生态环境指标，权重和相对重要程度较高；④甘肃境内黑河流域2023—2030年水资源承载力预测结果呈现明显上升趋势，水资源承载力水平不断增强。研究成果对黑河流域及西北地区的水资源可持续利用、协调水资源与生态保护和经济发展之间的关系提供理论参考和借鉴意义。

The Heihe River Basin in Gansu Province is faced with severe water resources shortage. It is of great significance to evaluate water resources shortage by using water resources carrying capacity index for sustainable utilization of water resources. An evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of Heihe River Basin in Gansu Province was constructed, and each index was weighted based on entropy weight method. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) model were used to evaluate and verify the water resources carrying capacity of Heihe River Basin in Gansu Province from 2011 to 2022, and the grey model was used to predict the water resources carrying capacity from 2023 to 2030. The results show these as follows. The water resources carrying capacity during 2011-2022 show a fluctuating upward trend in Heihe River Basin in Gansu Province, and the state of water resources carrying capacity tends to be better. The average values of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and TOPSIS model comprehensive evaluation are 0.406 and 0.438 respectively, and the whole model is in a critical bearing state. Water resource indicators such as water production modulus (8.677%), annual precipitation (7.496%), annual runoff(5.381%), population density (14.523%), water consumption for forestry, livestock, fishery and livestock (9.181%), water consumption per 10 000 yuan of GDP (6.037%), GDP (4.088%) and other social and economic indicators. Ecological and environmental indicators, such as water use efficiency (6.724%) and water-saving irrigation area (3.721%), have high weight and relative importance. The predicted results of water resources carrying capacity in Heihe River Basin in Gansu Province from 2023 to 2030 show an obvious upward trend, and the level of water resources carrying capacity is continuously enhanced. The results provide theoretical reference for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the coordination of the relationship between water resources, ecological protection and economic development in the Heihe River Basin and northwest China.