冰湖溃决会对下游基础设施和人民生命安全产生巨大的威胁，如何有效判识对于预防和减轻灾害影响至关重要。提出了一个基于风险源与动力机制的冰湖溃决判识新方法，强调冰湖风险源因子和动力机制的模拟。以炯拉措冰湖为例，使用PS-InSAR、钻探确定了冰湖动态变化规律和冰碛坝形变、结构组成；综合判识了可能诱发冰湖溃决的关键风险源，判识并计算碎屑坡与侧碛垄塌岸入湖体积、泥石流入湖体积、子冰湖溃决入湖体积和母冰川入湖；最后利用r.avaflow物理模型对冰湖溃决进行模拟。结果表明：炯拉措冰湖面积从1988年1.82 km²扩张到2020年的5.34 km²，扩张了约2.93倍；碎屑坡与侧碛垄塌岸、冰川泥石流、烔阿曲冰湖、母冰川4个风险源的可能入湖体量分别为954.45×10⁴、218.2×10⁴、45×10⁴~270×10⁴、2 406×10⁴ m³；冰川断裂工况一下，断裂冰川体积约为2 406×10⁴ m³，金岭乡洪峰流量为5 133.17 m³/s，通东村的洪峰流量为3 219.31 m³/s；冰川断裂工况二下，断裂冰川体积约为1 064×10⁴ m³，金岭乡洪峰流量为2 332.12 m³/s，通东村洪峰流量为452.93 m³/s。研究为炯拉措冰碛湖的风险判识提供新的方法，可为藏东南霞曲流域未来的灾害管理与防灾减灾提供理论依据。

Glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs) are recognized as a significant threat to downstream infrastructure and human safety, making the development of effective identification methods crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. A novel approach for GLOF identification was proposed, based on risk source analysis and power mechanism simulation. Jionglacuo glacial lake was selected as a case study, through which the dynamic changes in glacial lake morphology and moraine dam structure were investigated. A comprehensive identification of key risk sources potentially triggering GLOFs was conducted, and theoretical models were employed to calculate potential volumes from various sources, including debris slopes, lateral moraine ridge collapses, subglacial lake outbursts, and glacier calving. The r. avaflow physical model was subsequently utilized to simulate potential GLOF scenarios. The results reveal that Jionglacuo glacial lake has undergone significant expansion, with its area being observed to increase from 1.82 km² in 1988 to 5.34 km² in 2020, representing a 2.93-fold enlargement. Quantitative analysis of four primary risk sources is performed, and potential volumes are determined as follows: debris slopes and lateral moraine ridge collapses (95.445 million m³), glacial debris flow (2.182 million m³), subglacial lake outburst (0.45 million ~ 2.7 million m³), and parent glacier (24.06 million m³). Glacial breakage scenarios are simulated under two conditions: in Condition 1, the volume of the breakage glacier is estimated to be approximately 24.06 million m³, while in Condition 2, the volume of the resulting glacial debris flow is calculated to be approximately 10.64 million m³. Potential peak flows are estimated to be 5 133.17 m³/s in Jinling Township and 3 219.31 m³/s in Tongdong Village for Condition 1, while for Condition 2, the values are calculated to be 2 332.12 m³/s and 452.93 m³/s, respectively. These findings are considered to propose a novel methodology for the identification of risk in moraine lakes in the Jionglacuo moraine lake, thereby providing a theoretical foundation for the future management of disasters and their prevention and mitigation in the Xiaqu Basin of southeastern Tibet.