针对室内物理模拟、理论公式和数值模拟等方法在预测双水平井蒸汽辅助重力泄油（steam-assisted gravity drainage, SAGD）产量过程中的问题，运用物质平衡方法和热量守恒原理分析SAGD开发机理，建立了SAGD开发蒸汽腔简化几何模型，根据蒸汽辅助重力泄油特点，分别推导了蒸汽腔上升阶段、蒸汽腔横向扩展阶段、蒸汽腔下降阶段关键几何参数计算方法，揭示了SAGD开发蒸汽腔发育规律和产量、含水变化特征。研究表明，模型可以较好地模拟双水平井蒸汽辅助重力泄油机理，预测的日产油和含水变化与实际趋势比较吻合。蒸汽腔上升阶段含水逐渐下降，产油量快速上升；蒸汽腔横向扩展阶段产油量显著下降、含水快速上升，产量快速递减；蒸汽腔下降阶段，含水过高，注汽对产量提升作用有限。方法根据蒸汽腔发育规律，综合考虑了SAGD物质平衡、热量平衡，与传统理论公式相比，方法可以模拟蒸汽腔发育全过程；与数值模拟方法相比，方法计算大幅简化了计算量。研究成果对制订开发策略和研究驱油规律有重要的指导意义。

To address the challenges associated with indoor physical simulation, theoretical formulations, and numerical simulation methods in predicting the production process of steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) in dual horizontal wells, the material balance method and the principle of heat conservation were employed to analyze the SAGD development mechanism. A simplified geometric model of the SAGD steam chamber was established. Based on the characteristics of steam-assisted gravity drainage, calculation methods for key geometric parameters during the upward, lateral expansion, and downward stages of the steam chamber were derived, elucidating the developmental patterns of the SAGD steam chamber as well as the characteristics of production and water content variations. The findings indicate that the proposed model effectively simulates the mechanism of steam-assisted gravity drainage in horizontal wells, with predicted daily oil production and water content trends aligning well with actual observations. During the upward stage of the steam chamber, water content gradually decreases while oil production increases. In the lateral expansion stage, oil production significantly declines, water content rises rapidly, and overall production decreases sharply. During the downward stage, water content becomes excessively high, and the impact of steam injection on production enhancement is limited. This method, grounded in the patterns of steam chamber development, integrates material balance and heat balance considerations specific to SAGD. Compared to traditional theoretical formulas, it offers a comprehensive simulation of the entire steam chamber development process. Furthermore, in contrast to numerical simulation methods, it significantly reduces computational complexity. The research outcomes provide valuable insights for formulating development strategies and studying displacement patterns, offering important guidance for optimizing SAGD operations.