超深层碳酸盐岩储层具有超高温和高闭合应力的特点，现有的井口装置在压裂作业中常面临压不开的难题。准确预测破裂压力对于研究有效的降破方法至关重要，但传统破裂压力预测模型未充分考虑温度影响，导致预测结果不够理想。为了解决上述问题，基于温度效应与工作液渗滤效应，建立了井底温度场与压力场耦合的温度-应力-渗流一体化破裂压力动态预测模型，并系统分析了地层、施工及射孔参数对超深井破裂压力的影响规律。研究结果表明，考虑温度效应后，模型能够较好模拟实例井P103在压裂过程中的井底压力和温度的变化，破裂压力预测值与实测值的吻合度高达98.98%，相较于传统未考虑温度效应的模型，预测精准率提高了11.66%。地层弹性模量越大、渗透率越高、孔隙度越大、工作液黏度越低、注液排量越小、射孔长度越长、井斜角越小，均会导致破裂压力降低，而泊松比的影响相对较小。此外，最佳射孔方位随着井筒方位角的增大而减小。基于此研究，提出通过增加渗透率和孔隙度、采用低黏度工作液、降低注入排量、延长射孔长度及优化射孔方位等措施，以实现降低破裂压力的目标。可见温度-应力-渗流一体化破裂压力动态预测模型的建立对于制定降低破裂压力措施并顺利压开储层具有重要的意义。

Ultra-deep carbonate reservoirs were characterized by extreme temperatures and high closure stresses, where existing wellhead devices frequently encountered fracturing initiation challenges during stimulation operations. Accurate prediction of fracture pressure was recognized as crucial for developing effective pressure-reduction methodologies, though conventional prediction models were found insufficient due to inadequate consideration of thermal effects. To address these limitations, an integrated dynamic fracture pressure prediction model was established through coupled temperature-stress-seepage analysis, incorporating both thermal effects and fracturing fluid filtration mechanisms. Systematic investigations were conducted on the influences of formation properties, operational parameters, and perforation characteristics on fracture pressure in ultra-deep wells. The research findings demonstrate that after incorporating thermal effects, the model was demonstrated to accurately simulate downhole pressure and temperature variations during the hydraulic fracturing process in case well P103. Notably, a matching degree of 98.98% was achieved between predicted and measured fracture pressures, with predictive accuracy being improved by 11.66% compared to conventional models neglecting thermal considerations. The greater the elastic modulus of the formation, the higher the permeability, the greater the porosity, the lower the viscosity of the working fluid, the smaller the injection volume, the longer the perforation length, and the smaller the well inclination angle, all will lead to a decrease in the rupture pressure, while the influence of Poisson's ratio is relatively small. In addition, the optimal perforation orientation decreases as the azimuth of the wellbore increases. Based on this research, measures such as increasing permeability and porosity, using low-viscosity working fluid, reducing injection volume, extending perforation length and optimizing perforation orientation are proposed to achieve the goal of reducing rupture pressure. It is evident that the establishment of an integrated temperature-stress-seepage dynamic prediction model for rupture pressure is of great significance for formulating measures to reduce rupture pressure and successfully breaking the reservoir.