厚油层油藏经过长期注水开发，纵向水淹波及规律复杂，给生产调整带来困难。以渗流力学为基础，综合考虑黏滞力、油水密度差、储层隔夹层分布等剩余油主控影响，建立了水质点在纵向上的运移解析模型，可以实现油藏水驱开发过程中注采井间水线运移速度和轨迹精确快速计算；同时该模型也可以表征厚油层注采井间纵向水淹波及规律，为精准确定剩余油分布提供方法。研究表明水平与垂向渗透率比值、采液速度、注采井距、油水密度差、地层韵律性和隔夹层分布对水质点运移轨迹具有明显影响，会造成纵向上多种水淹波及特征，剩余油更加分散，形成厚油层底部水淹、隔夹层下遮挡控制剩余油模式，研究结果为厚油层剩余油挖潜提供靶向指导。

In thick oil reservoirs subjected to prolonged waterflooding development, the complex vertical water flooding patterns pose significant challenges to production optimization. Based on the principles of flow mechanics, an analytical model for vertical particle migration was established by integrating dominant controlling factors including viscous forces, oil-water density difference and interlayer distributions. The model enables precise and rapid calculation of waterflood front propagation velocities and trajectories between injection-production well during reservoir development. Furthermore, it effectively characterizes vertical water flooding pattern in thick oil reservoirs, providing a method for accurate determination of remaining oil distribution. The research shows that permeability ratio, liquid production rate, well spacing, oil-water density difference, stratigraphic rhythm and interlayer distribution exert significant control on water particle migration trajectories. These factors induce diverse vertical sweep characteristics, leading to dispersed remaining oil distribution patterns characterized by bottom water flooding and controlled by underlayers. The result provides targeted guidance for remaining oil production in thick oil reservoirs.