
科学技术与工程

中国技术经济学会
城市道路结构对犯罪模式的影响:以JB市YC区盗窃犯罪为例
Impact of Urban Road Structures on Crime Patterns: A Case of Theft in YC District, JB City
城市道路承载了人们的日常活动,也对犯罪人的行为具有塑造作用。当前大部分研究仅将道路作为建成环境的部分简单分析其与犯罪分布的关系,鲜有研究细致探究道路不同结构属性对犯罪的影响,为深入挖掘这一影响机制,为一线警务部门优化警务资源配置提供指导依据,以JB市YC区为例,首先识别盗窃犯罪的空间分布热点及犯罪热点路段;其次将道路结构分为几何结构和拓扑结构两部分,构建空间句法道路线段模型,研究了道路几何结构及不同交通模式下道路拓扑结构;最后采用零膨胀负二项回归和多元线性回归研究道路结构特征对于盗窃犯罪的影响。研究发现:道路的长度、角曲率、路网支路密度对盗窃犯罪具有正向影响,越长越曲折的路段和支路密度更高的区域发生盗窃犯罪的可能性更高;道路拓扑结构中的接近度和穿行度在不同的交通方式下对盗窃犯罪呈现不同显著影响;步行交通模式道路接近度、穿行度对盗窃犯罪的发生具有显著的负相关作用;自行车交通模式下,道路接近度、穿行度对盗窃犯罪具有正向作用;电动车和机动车交通模式下,道路的接近度对盗窃犯罪均有正向影响,电动车交通模式下,穿行度对盗窃犯罪有负向影响。该研究丰富了犯罪地理学领域对盗窃犯罪的研究成果,为一线警务机关理解犯罪影响机制、优化警务资源分布、维护社会稳定提供理论依据。
Urban roads are recognized to facilitate daily human activities while simultaneously being observed to shape behavioral patterns. Currently, most studies simply analyze the relationship between roads and crime distribution as part of the built environment, and few studies have thoroughly explored the impact of different structural attributes of roads on crime. In order to further explore this impact mechanism and provide guidance for the optimization of police resource allocation by front-line police departments. The operational mechanisms were investigated by which geometric and topological road attributes influence theft distribution across varied transportation modalities. Using crime data from YC District, JB City, spatial crime hotspots and high-risk road segments were initially identified through geospatial analysis. Next, the road structure was systematically decomposed into two distinct dimensions: geometric attributes and topological properties. A space syntax segment model was created to quantitatively assess geometric characteristics and traffic modality-specific topological configurations. Finally, Statistical relationships were investigated using zero-inflated negative binomial regression complemented by multiple linear regression modeling. Research has found that theft incidence is demonstrated to be positively associated with segment length, angular curvature metrics, and branch road density within the network. Elevated crime probabilities are observed in extended roadway segments exhibiting complex geometric configurations and regions characterized by dense branch road networks. The closeness and betweenness of the road's topological structure exert varying significant effects on theft crime across different traffic modes. Specifically, in pedestrian traffic modes, a significant negative correlation is observed between road closeness and betweenness and the occurrence of theft crime. In bicycle traffic modes, road closeness and betweenness are found to have a positive effect on theft crime. In electric vehicle and motor vehicle traffic modes, road closeness have a positive effect on theft crime, while in electric vehicle traffic mode, betweenness was found to have a negative effect on theft crime. These findings contribute novel insights to environmental criminology theory while offering empirically grounded recommendations for strategic police deployment and urban security management.
城市道路 / 盗窃犯罪 / 空间句法 / 安全 / 道路结构
urban road / crime of theft / space syntax / safety / road structure
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