致密气藏气井实际生产过程中产量和压力的变化情况复杂，工作制度变动频繁，产量预测难度大。通过分析苏南气田井丛历史生产数据，明确不同生产阶段产量下降的递减规律，基于双曲递减模型，提出适用于井丛整体分析的时变递减模型，弥补单井数据波动带来的误差，并引入非线性调节参数α，增强模型对不同生产阶段的适应性。结果表明：在井丛产量预测过程中，时变递减模型能够准确捕捉初始高产气量和随后的快速递减趋势，预测日产气量相关系数0.95以上，累计产气量平均误差在2.5%以下，显著优于其他3种递减模型，为苏南气田致密气藏气井产量预测提供了新方法。

The changes of production and pressure during the actual production of gas wells in tight gas reservoirs are complicated, and the frequent changes of working system make the production prediction difficult. The historical production data of well clusters in Sunan gas field was analyzed, the decreasing pattern of production decline at different production stages was clarified, and based on hyperbolic decreasing model, a time-varying decreasing model was proposed for the overall analysis of well clusters to compensate for the errors caused by fluctuations of single-well data, and a nonlinear adjustment parameter α was introduced to enhance the adaptability of the model to different production stages. The results show that the time-varying decreasing model can accurately capture the initial high gas production and the subsequent rapid decreasing trend in the process of well clusters production prediction, with the correlation coefficient of the predicted daily gas production of more than 0.95 and the average error of the cumulative gas production of less than 2.5%, which is significantly better than the other three decreasing models. It provides a new method for gas well production prediction in tight gas reservoirs of Sunan gas field.