基于健康指数与威布尔故障率模型的电力互感器浸水后劣化寿命预测方法

阮道杰 ,  朱阿猛 ,  徐永胜 ,  高俊卓 ,  李维波

科学技术与工程 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (26) :11210-11219

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科学技术与工程 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (26) :11210-11219 DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2407380
电工技术

基于健康指数与威布尔故障率模型的电力互感器浸水后劣化寿命预测方法

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Prediction Method of Power Transformer Life Deterioration after Flooding Based on Health Index and Weibull Failure Rate Model

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摘要

开展电网计量装置电力互感器浸水后劣化特性的研究,对电网公司在洪涝灾害后电力互感器的风险评估与检修决策至关重要。为此,提出了基于健康指数与威布尔故障率模型的电力互感器浸水后劣化寿命预测方法,即通过采用模糊综合评价方法求解出互感器健康指数,用模糊语言描述互感器运行状态,利用改进的基于时间与设备状态的故障率模型确定当前状态下互感器故障率。进一步地,利用白鲸优化算法改进的最小二乘法(Beluga whale optimization-ordinary least squares, BWO-OLS)分段拟合出电力互感器威布尔故障率浴盆曲线,将它浸水后状态下的故障率映射到威布尔故障率浴盆曲线中,求解出电力互感器浸水后等效劣化寿命。选用8种不同型号电流互感器开展浸水实验,其测试结果表明:电流互感器浸水后会发生不可逆性的劣化,它们浸水后运行状态与模型评价结果一致,验证了浸水后劣化互感器寿命预测方法的有效性。

Abstract

Conducting research on the deterioration characteristics of power transformers in electrical grid measurement devices after being submerged in water is crucial for power grid companies to assess the risks and make maintenance decisions after flood disasters. Therefore, a method for predicting the equivalent deteriorated lifetime of power transformers after being submerged in water based on health index and Weibull failure rate model was proposed. That is, the health index of transformers was determined by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the operating state of transformers was described by using fuzzy language. The current state failure rate of transformers was determined by using the improved time-based and equipment state-based failure rate model. Furthermore, the bat whale optimization algorithm was used to improve the least squares method for segmented fitting of the Weibull failure rate bathtub curve, and the current state failure rate of transformers was mapped to the Weibull failure rate bathtub curve, thereby solving for the equivalent deteriorated lifetime of transformers after being submerged in water. Eight different types of current transformers were subjected to water immersion tests, and the test results show that current transformers deteriorate irreversibly after being submerged in water. The operating states of the transformers after being submerged in water are consistent with the evaluation results obtained by the model, thereby verifying the effectiveness of the method for predicting the deteriorated lifetime of transformers after being submerged in water.

关键词

电力互感器 / BWO-OLS / 威布尔故障率模型 / 健康指数 / 劣化寿命

Key words

power transformers / BWO-OLS / Weibull failure rate model / health index / degradation life

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阮道杰, 朱阿猛, 徐永胜, 高俊卓, 李维波. 基于健康指数与威布尔故障率模型的电力互感器浸水后劣化寿命预测方法[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2025, 25(26): 11210-11219 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2407380
RUAN Dao-jie, ZHU A-meng, XU Yong-sheng, GAO Jun-zhuo, LI Wei-bo. Prediction Method of Power Transformer Life Deterioration after Flooding Based on Health Index and Weibull Failure Rate Model[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025, 25(26): 11210-11219 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2407380

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基金资助

国家重点研发计划(2020YFB1506802)

湖北省科技计划(2024BAB067)

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