近年来，浅井套管变形频发，如西部涩北气田发现50余口井深低于1 200 m的套损井，然而浅井套管变形失效机理研究鲜见。因此，基于该气田套损数据并充分考虑地质因素，工程因素及生产因素对套管变形及Mises应力影响，建立了套管-水泥环-地层组合体有限元力学模型，开展单因素下组合体套管变形及其失效力学行为模拟，并基于灰色关联度分析法确定单因素与套管Mises应力的敏感性，基于敏感性分析结果开展综合因素下组合体套管变形及其失效力学行为模拟，得到单因素及综合因素下套管Mises应力分布及其变化规律；基于理论模型及试验结果验证了有限元模拟的准确性及可靠性。研究结果表明：综合因素影响下套管应力集中明显，局部应力突破套管屈服强度且塑性形变不断累积直至套管发生变形失效，揭示了浅井套管变形失效机理。结论认为，该研究结果可以为套管强度设计及优化提供一定的技术参考。

Recently, shallow well casing deformation has occurred frequently, for example, 50 casing damaged wells with depths below 1 200 m were discovered in the Sebei Gas Field in the western China. However, research on the failure mechanism of shallow well casing deformation is rare. Therefore, based on the casing damage data of this gas field and fully considering the influence of geological factors, engineering factors, and production factors on casing deformation and Mises stress, a finite element mechanical model of the "casing-cement sheath-formation" combination was conducted, and simulation of casing deformation and failure mechanical behavior under single factor were carried out, and the sensitivity of single factor and casing Mises stress was determined based on grey correlation analysis method. Based on the sensitivity analysis results, simulation of casing deformation and failure mechanical behavior under comprehensive factors was carried out, and the distribution and variation law of casing Mises stress under single factor and comprehensive factors were obtained. The accuracy and reliability of finite element simulation were verified based on theoretical models and experimental results. The research results indicate that the casing stress concentration is significant under the influence of comprehensive factors. Then the local stress exceeds the casing yield strength, and the plastic deformation accumulates continuously until the casing undergoes deformation and failure, which reveals the mechanism of deformation and failure of shallow well casing. The research results can provide certain technical references for the design and optimization of casing strength.