风能的可再生优点使得风电规模迅速发展，而风电场送出系统雷击事故会对新型电力系统造成重大影响。传统雷击预警对数据种类及样本数量要求较高，且未充分考虑相对位置以及落雷密度分布。对此提出一种基于阶梯化雷击概率计算法的风电场送出系统雷击预警方法。首先分析2020年中国海南某风电场周边落雷点数据，运用蒙特卡罗法求取聚类云团质心以及落雷点密度，拟合雷暴云运动轨迹。再根据运动轨迹与线路走向的相对位置，结合阶梯化雷击概率计算法得出短时间内的雷击概率值。最后结合2020—2022年海南某风电场运行监测数据进行仿真模拟。结果表明：所提出方法的相对误差在15%以内，并同时有效减少落雷密度差异对于预警精度影响，最大限度地保证风电场送出系统安全。

The advantages of renewable wind energy lead to a rapid growth in the scale of wind power, while lightning strike accidents on wind farm delivery systems have a significant impact on the new power system. The traditional lightning strike warning method requires high data types and sample sizes, and lacks consideration of relative location as well as the distribution of lightning density. A lightning strike warning method for wind farm delivery systems based on the stepped lightning strike probability calculation method was proposed. Firstly, the data of lightning points around a wind farm in Hainan, China in 2020 were analyzed, and the Monte Carlo method was used to find the center of mass of the clusters as well as the density of lightning points to fit the trajectory of the thunderclouds. Then, based on the relative position of the movement trajectory and transmission line, the stepped lightning strike probability calculation method was combined to calculate the value of the lightning strike probability in a short period of time. Finally, the simulation was combined with the operation monitoring data of a wind farm in Hainan from 2020 to 2022. The results show that the relative error of the proposed method is within 15%, and the impact of the difference in the density of lightning points on the warning accuracy is effectively reduced, which ensures the safety of the wind farm delivery system.