基于双互依关系的风力机叶片竞争失效可靠性

祁晓 ,  毕俊喜 ,  王思 ,  李进峰 ,  周燕 ,  刘飞

科学技术与工程 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (19) :8049-8057

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科学技术与工程 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (19) :8049-8057 DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2406477
机械、仪表工业

基于双互依关系的风力机叶片竞争失效可靠性

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Reliability of Competing Failure of Wind Turbine Blade Based on Two Interdependencies

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摘要

风力机叶片等复杂装备面临着性能退化和随机冲击的双重影响,且这两种损伤模式之间存在两对互依关系:退化过程内在因素之间的相互依赖,以及退化过程与冲击过程之间的相互依赖。这些特性给装备的可靠性分析带来挑战。为解决此问题,基于两种相互依赖竞争失效过程(mutually dependent competing failure processes, MDCFPs)模型,建立了新MDCFPs模型,该模型整合了两对互依关系。以基于Gamma过程的风力机叶片刚度退化模型和基于齐次泊松过程的极端冲击模型为例,采用控制变量法对3种模型的精度与差异进行分析,并研究了关键参数的影响。结果显示,相同条件下,新模型的可靠度与实际观测的经验可靠度最接近,绝对误差不超过0.12;同时,新模型的可靠度低于两种基础模型,最大绝对误差分别为0.26和0.40。通过调整新模型参数,新模型与基础模型的可靠度绝对误差均控制在0.03和0.02以内。这表明新模型综合考虑了各因素之间的互依关系,有效避免了高估可靠度的风险,并且能够较好地代替基础模型,具有更广泛的适用性。

Abstract

Complex equipment such as wind turbine blades faces both performance degradation and random shocks. There are two interdependent relationships between these two failure modes: the interdependence between internal factors in the degradation process and the interdependence between degradation and shock processes. These characteristics pose challenges to reliability analysis. To solve this problem, a new mutually dependent competing failure processes (MDCFPs) model was proposed based on two MDCFPs models. This new model integrated two interdependencies. Taking the wind turbine blade stiffness degradation model based on Gamma process and the extreme shock model based on homogeneous Poisson process as examples, the accuracy and differences of three models were analyzed using the control variate method, and the influence of key parameters was studied. The results show that, under the same conditions, the new model's reliability is closest to the observed empirical reliability, with an absolute error of no more than 0.12. At the same time, the new model's reliability is lower than that of the two base models, with maximum absolute errors of 0.26 and 0.40, respectively. After adjusting the parameters of the new model, the absolute errors in reliability compared to the base models are limited to 0.03 and 0.02. These findings suggest that the new model effectively accounts for interdependencies among factors, prevents overestimation of reliability, and can replace base models, demonstrating broader applicability.

关键词

可靠性 / 相互依赖竞争失效 / 退化过程 / 极端冲击 / 风力机叶片

Key words

reliability / mutually dependent competing failure processes (MDCFPs) / degradation process / extreme shock / wind turbine blade

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祁晓, 毕俊喜, 王思, 李进峰, 周燕, 刘飞. 基于双互依关系的风力机叶片竞争失效可靠性[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2025, 25(19): 8049-8057 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2406477
QI Xiao, BI Jun-xi, WANG Si, LI Jin-feng, ZHOU Yan, LIU Fei. Reliability of Competing Failure of Wind Turbine Blade Based on Two Interdependencies[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025, 25(19): 8049-8057 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2406477

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金(52165019)

内蒙古自治区重点研发和成果转化计划(2023KJHZ0008)

内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(ZTY2024037)

2024“蒙科聚”创新平台科技成果落地产业化示范项目(2024MKJCGZH001)

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