暴雨雨型对基础设施防洪具有重要影响，但当前设计暴雨雨型计算面临要求资料分辨率高、未考虑气候变化的影响等问题。选取西南喀斯特区域历年防洪压力较大的典型中小流域（六硐河流域）为例，基于分布特征灵活、应用广泛的Gamma分布，采用近60年的最大24 h暴雨历时资料，评价了模型表现，率定了模型的参数，分析了参数演变特征，并基于上述结果计算了雨型不确定性、复杂度和可预测度的变化趋势。结果表明：模型具有较高的精度，相关系数平均大于0.92；模型参数的演变趋势表明气候变化背景下最大24 h暴雨雨型呈现出形状因子减小、尺度因子增大的特征；雨型的不确定性总体增加，复杂度和可预测度表现出较高的空间异质性。研究结果将为优化暴雨雨型模型、分析其动态演变提供参考，从而更好地防治洪涝灾害，尤其是降水不确定性高、下垫面条件复杂的喀斯特区域。

Storm rainfall patterns are critical to infrastructure flood control, but the main design methods are hindered by requiring high resolution data and ignoring the impacts of climate change. Taking the typical small and medium-sized river basin (Liudong River Basin) with relatively high flood control pressure in the Karst area of southwest China over the years as an example, based on the Gamma distribution with flexible distribution characteristics and wide application, and using the duration data of the maximum 24-hour rainstorm in the past 60 years, the model performance was evaluated, the parameters of the model were determined, and the evolution characteristics of the parameters were analyzed. Based on the above results, the changing trends of rain pattern uncertainty, complexity and predictability were calculated. The results show that the model has high accuracy, and the average correlation coefficient is greater than 0.92. The evolution trend of the model parameters indicates that under the background of climate change, the rain pattern of the maximum 24-hour rainstorm shows the characteristics of decreasing shape factor and increasing scale factor. The uncertainty of rain patterns has generally increased, and the complexity and predictability show high spatial heterogeneity. The research results will provide references for optimizing the rainstorm rain pattern model and analyzing its dynamic evolution, thereby better preventing and controlling flood disasters, especially in Karst areas with high precipitation uncertainty and complex underlying surface conditions.