为缓解非交叉汇聚构型跑道同时起降运行的碰撞风险、制定符合运行特征的管制策略，通过综合运用事件树分析和蒙特卡洛方法，对碰撞风险进行评估。在基于事件树分析确定待求解事件基础上，应用蒙特卡洛方法，对相关事件进行概率计算。通过对实验得到的碰撞事件数据进行统计和拟合，对标安全目标水平，提出管制策略。结果表明：应用所提方法对大兴机场非交叉汇聚跑道01L进场和29R离场进行风险研究，得出起飞屏蔽窗口为（0.41 ~ 7.39 km）。应用该策略，可以将起降飞机碰撞风险控制在可接受水平。所提出的起飞屏蔽窗口计算模型对非交叉汇聚构型跑道安全运行管制策略的制定具有普适性。

In order to alleviate the collision risk of non-intersecting runways simultaneous operation, it is necessary to apply a control strategy conforming to the operation characteristics. A collision risk assessment model was constructed by using event tree analysis and Monte Carlo method. Based on event tree analysis, the event to be solved was determined. The probability of related events was calculated by Monte Carlo method. By statistical and fitting the collision event data obtained by the experiment, the safety target level was standardized and the control strategy was put forward. Finally, taking the approach of 01L and the departure of 29R on the non-intersection runways of Daxing Airport as an example, the departure shielding window (0.41 ~ 7.39 km) was obtained. Using this strategy, the risk of aircraft collision can be controlled at an acceptable level. The proposed computational model of departure shielding window is of general applicability to the formulation of safe operation control strategies for non-intersecting converging runways.