考虑感知价值与风险的低空出行意愿影响因素

徐韬 ,  任其亮 ,  刘媛 ,  林伟

科学技术与工程 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (19) :8241-8251

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科学技术与工程 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (19) :8241-8251 DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2405474
交通运输

考虑感知价值与风险的低空出行意愿影响因素

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Factors Influencing Low Altitude Travel Intention Considering Perceived Value and Risk

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摘要

为分析影响低空出行意愿的主要影响因素和影响路径,基于出行意愿模型及价值-风险分析构建了结构方程模型,量化出行偏好、出行特征、感知价值、感知风险对低空出行意愿的相互作用机理,利用未加权最小二乘法求解路径系数,并开展了感知价值、感知风险等对出行偏好的中介效应分析,以及性别、年龄等出行者个体信息的多群组模型不变性分析,最后利用模糊集定性比较分析(fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis, fsQCA)方法分析了出行意愿的前因变量构成组态。结果表明:结构模型卡方自由度比、RMSEA(root mean square error of approximation)值、CFI(comparative fit index)值分别为3.803、0.063、0.938,通过了模型检验;感知价值(0.38)是直接影响出行意愿的最重要因素,出行特征(0.08)对出行意愿有正向直接影响,感知风险(-0.22)有负向直接影响,但出行偏好对出行意愿无显著影响;出行偏好对出行意愿呈现负效应,出行特征、感知价值对出行偏好产生了遮掩效应,感知风险则对其产生了中介效应;出行者个体信息中税前年收入对模型起调节作用,随着出行距离的增加,高收入群体较低收入群体使用低空飞行器意愿更大,同时高收入群体对低空飞行器在技术成熟度、事故严重程度等感知风险方面更加敏感;fsQCA分析表明,有3种组态可以形成出行意愿,其中组态3(出行特征、感知价值型)样本覆盖率最高,能解释48.9%的样本案例数量,当出行者属于高峰时段必要出行,且对低空出行舒适度、私密性等存在正面认知时,会产生低空出行倾向。研究结论可为低空飞行器推广促进和政策制定提供数据支撑。

Abstract

To analyze the main influencing factors and pathways of low altitude travel intention, a structural equation model was constructed based on travel intention model and value risk analysis. The interaction mechanism between travel preference, travel characteristics, perceived value, and perceived risk on low altitude aircraft travel intention was quantified. The path coefficients were solved using unweighted least squares method, and the mediating effects of perceived value, perceived risk, and other factors on travel preference were analyzed. Additionally, a multi group model invariance analysis of individual information such as gender and age on travelers was conducted. Finally, the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) method was used to analyze the configuration of the antecedent variables of travel intention. The results showed that the chi square degree of freedom ratio, RMSEA (root mean square error of approximation) value, and CFI(comparative fit index) value of the structural model were 3.803, 0.063, and 0.938, respectively, which passed the model validation. Perceived value (0.38) is the most important factor affecting travel intention. Travel characteristics (0.08) have a positive direct impact on travel intention, while perceived risk (-0.22) has a negative direct impact. However, travel preferences have no significant impact on travel intention; Travel preferences have a negative effect on travel willingness, but travel characteristics and perceived value have a masking effect on travel preferences, while perceived risk has a mediating effect on them; The pre tax annual income in the individual information of travelers has a moderating effect on the model. As the travel distance increases, the high-income group is more willing to use low altitude aircraft than the low-income group. At the same time, the high-income group is more sensitive to the perceived risks of low altitude aircraft in terms of technological maturity and accident severity. fsQCA analysis shows that there are three configurations that can form travel intention, among which configuration 3 (type of travel characteristics&perceived value) has the highest sample coverage, explaining 48.9% of the sample cases. When travelers are necessary to travel during peak hours and have a positive understanding of low altitude travel comfort, privacy, etc., they will develop a low altitude travel tendency. The research findings can provide data support for the promotion and policy formulation of low altitude aircraft.

关键词

交通工程 / 低空出行 / 结构方程模型 / 感知价值 / 感知风险

Key words

traffic engineering / low altitude travel / structural equation model / perceived value / perceived risk

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引用格式 ▾
徐韬, 任其亮, 刘媛, 林伟. 考虑感知价值与风险的低空出行意愿影响因素[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2025, 25(19): 8241-8251 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2405474
XU Tao, REN Qi-liang, LIU Yuan, LIN Wei. Factors Influencing Low Altitude Travel Intention Considering Perceived Value and Risk[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025, 25(19): 8241-8251 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2405474

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基金资助

重庆设计集团2023年度科研项目(2023-A2)

国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJY038)

教育部人文社会科学基金青年科学基金(20XJCZH011)

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