利用MODFLOW对苏干湖盆地地下水动态进行数值模拟，并对4种不同调水方案进行50年预测。MODFLOW模拟结果与实测情况拟合良好，表明所建模型可用于苏干湖盆地地下水动态的预测。不同调水方案下的MODFLOW模拟结果表明：预测50年时间，随着调水量的增大，大苏干湖面积缩减率随之增大，且苏干湖盆地地下水水位整体呈下降趋势；跨流域调水所产生的影响具有一定的时间滞后性和空间异质性；综合考虑调水需求以及调水工程对苏干湖盆地生态环境的影响，认为调水方案1.0 × 10⁸ m³/a较为合适。研究成果可为跨流域调水工程对苏干湖盆地生态环境的影响评价以及调水方案的确定提供重要科学理论依据。

A numerical simulation of groundwater dynamics in the Sugan Lake Basin was conducted by using MODFLOW, and 50-year predictions were made for four different water diversion schemes. The results from MODFLOW simulations fit well with the measured data, indicating that the established model can be used for predicting the groundwater dynamics in the Sugan Lake Basin. The MODFLOW simulation results under different water diversion schemes reveal that over a period of 50 years, as the amount of diverted water increases, the shrinkage rate of the large Sugan Lake's area also increases, and the groundwater level in the Sugan Lake Basin shows a general declining trend. The impact of inter-basin water transfer exhibits certain time lags and spatial heterogeneity. Considering both the water diversion requirements and the effects of the water diversion project on the ecological environment of the Sugan Lake Basin, it is suggested that a water diversion scheme of 1.0 × 10⁸ m³/a is more appropriate. The research results provide important scientific theoretical support for assessing the impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects on the ecological environment of the Sugan Lake Basin and for determining suitable water diversion schemes.