鄂尔多斯盆地海相碳酸盐岩储层钻进过程中易发生气侵、井漏、井壁垮塌等井下复杂情况，系统评价超压成因机制和准确预测地层压力对目标层系勘探开发尤为重要。以鄂尔多斯盆地东部奥陶系马家沟组碳酸盐岩储层为研究目标，借助测井曲线组合分析法、有效应力-声波速度法、声波速度-密度法和综合分析法对目的层位进行超压成因分析；通过建立碳酸盐岩基质、骨架、混合孔隙流体及饱和流体岩石的弹性模量物理模型，并结合有效应力原理，形成了适用于鄂尔多斯盆地东部奥陶系马家沟组的地层压力预测方法；最后通过现场数据验证模型的准确性。结果表明：目的储层超压成因以生烃作用为主，欠压实作用和构造挤压为辅，新模型预测结果的相对误差可控制在10%以下，有较强的适用性和较高的预测精度。研究成果对鄂尔多斯盆地东部奥陶系马家沟组地层的油气成藏的研究具有一定指导意义。

The Ordos Basin's marine carbonate reservoirs often experience downhole complexities such as gas invasion, lost circulation, and borehole collapse during drilling. It is particularly important to systematically evaluate the overpressure mechanisms and accurately predict formation pressure for the exploration and development of the target strata. The carbonate reservoir of the Ordovician Majiagou Formation in the eastern Ordos Basin was selected as the research target. Overpressure mechanisms were analyzed using the combination of well log curve analysis, effective stress-acoustic velocity method, acoustic velocity-density method, and comprehensive analysis method. A physical model of elastic modulus for carbonate rock matrix, framework, mixed pore fluid, and saturated fluid rock was established, and combined with the effective stress principle, a method for predicting formation pressure was developed, applicable to the Majiagou Formation in the eastern Ordos Basin. Finally, the model's accuracy was verified using field data. The results indicate that hydrocarbon generation is the primary cause of overpressure in the target reservoir, with undercompaction and structural compression as secondary factors. The new model achieves a relative error of less than 10%, demonstrating strong applicability and high predictive accuracy. The research results provide guidance for the study of hydrocarbon accumulation in the Majiagou Formation in the eastern Ordos Basin.