预测符合中国国情的可持续航空燃料（sustainable aviation fuel, SAF）的减排潜力与成本对推动SAF行业的发展，对实现碳中和目标至关重要。基于国际可比和自主可控原则，构建脂类和脂肪酸类加氢处理（hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, HEFA）和费托合成（Fischer-Tropsch, FT）两条技术路径的全生命周期碳减排模型，预测2025—2060年中国民航SAF的减排量和减排成本。结果表明：适合在2025—2030年阶段部署的以废弃油脂为原料的HEFA路线相比于传统航空煤油减少的碳排放量、减排贡献、减排成本分别为61.3 kgCO_2e/GJ、84.4%、0 ~ 1 025.9 CNY/tCO_2e。在2030—2060年主要发展的FT路线中：以城市固体废弃物为原料的路线其减少的碳排放量最大，为68.4 kgCO_2e/GJ；以农业废弃物和城市固体废弃物为原料的减排成本低于以林业废弃物为原料。鉴于中国国情，农业废弃物为原料的FT路线由于其丰富的原材料及较低的减排成本，更适宜在2030年以后作为主要SAF生产技术路线进行发展。同时预计2060年中国民航SAF减排量大体在17 177 ~ 19 819万t。2025—2060年，可能情景下累计碳减排成本分别达到11 063 ~ 45 828亿元，边际碳减排成本为220 ~ 697 CNY/tCO_2e。

Predicting the emission reduction potential and cost of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that aligns with China's national conditions is essential for advancing the SAF industry and achieving carbon neutrality goals. Based on the principles of international comparability and independent controllability, a lifecycle carbon emission reduction model was developed for two technological pathways: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT). This model forecasted the emission reduction and cost associated with SAF in China's civil aviation sector from 2025 to 2060. The results indicate that the HEFA pathway, which is suitable for implementation between 2025 and 2030 using waste oils as feedstock, achieves a carbon emissions reduction of 61.3 kgCO_2e/GJ, contributing to an overall reduction of 84.4%. This associated cost ranges from 0 to 1 025.9 CNY/tCO_2e when compared to traditional aviation kerosene. In contrast, the FT pathway-primarily developed between 2030 and 2060 utilizing municipal solid waste as raw material yields the highest carbon emissions reduction at 68.4 kgCO_2e/GJ. Furthermore, routes employing agricultural or municipal solid waste exhibit lower abatement costs than those utilizing forestry waste. Considering China's specific national conditions, it is determined the FT route utilizing agricultural waste as feedstock is more appropriate for development as the main SAF production technology after 2030 due to its abundant raw materials and comparatively lower abatement costs. Projections suggest that by 2060, reductions in China's civil aviation SAF could reach approximately 17 177 million tons to 19 819 million tons. From a possible scenario spanning from 2025 to 2060, it is estimated that cumulative carbon abatement costs will amount to between 11 063 to 45 828 billion CNY, this corresponds with a marginal carbon abatement cost ranging from 220 to 697 CNY/tCO_2e.