为解决生态维护与农业生产需水量之间的矛盾，厘定干旱区生态修复最小需水量。以塔里木河下游为典型研究区，通过潜在自然植被（potential natural vegetation, PNV）模拟的方法，得出植被生长适宜区域，并对乔木、灌木和草地的适宜生长区域和面积进行了分析，结合AET数据集的多年蒸散发结果，对塔里木河下游的最小需水量进行了计算，结果表明：塔河下游得出的PNV结果以灌木为主，林地和草地对水资源的依赖程度较高，主要分布在河道周边；研究区内的林地和草地均表现出较高的生长潜力，而距离河道较远的灌木分布区域表现出退化趋势；根据PNV模拟结果计算出的塔里木河下游生态需水量约为11 279.23 × 10⁴ m³，其中灌木占比最大，而林地和草地由于面积较小，需水量占比分别为7.4%和5.36%。研究结果为干旱区流域生态修复及输水量的确定提供了新的方法，能够明确流域的生态修复范围和植被种类，并有助于区域水资源的管理和优化配置。

In order to solve the contradiction between ecological maintenance and agricultural production water demand, the minimum water demand for ecological restoration in arid areas was determined. The lower reaches of the Tarim River were selected as the typical study area. Suitable areas for vegetation growth were determined through the PNV (potential natural vegetation) simulation method, while the suitable growth ranges and distribution areas of trees, shrubs, and grasslands were analyzed. The minimum ecological water demand for the lower reaches of the Tarim River was calculated by the multi-year evapotranspiration data from the AET dataset. The results show as follows. The PNV results obtaine in the lower reaches of the Tarim River are dominated by shrubs, forests and grasslands are highly dependent on water resources, mainly distributed around river channels. The forest and grassland in the study area show high growth potential, while the shrub distribution areas far from the river show a degradation trend. According to PNV simulation results, the ecological water demand in the lower reaches of Tarim River is about 11 279.23 × 10⁴ m³, of which shrubs account for the largest proportion, while woodland and grassland account for 7.4% and 5.36% respectively due to their small areas. The research results provide a new method for ecological restoration and determination of water transport capacity in arid areas, which can clarify the scope of ecological restoration and vegetation types in the basin, and contribute to the management and optimal allocation of regional water resources.