针对永磁同步电机（permanent magnet synchronous motor, PMSM）传统模型预测磁链控制（model predictive control, MPFC）系统稳态误差大、参数鲁棒性较差的问题，提出了一种基于定子磁链预测误差矢量分析的永磁同步电机多电压矢量选择方法。首先，在两相静止坐标系下依据轴线划分扇区，制定了判断磁链误差矢量所在区域的多电压矢量选择标准。然后，采用定子磁链预测值和两相静止坐标系定子磁链价值函数计算各电压矢量作用时间，改进了传统模型预测寻优过程。此外，设计了一种考虑电阻、电感参数失配的离散滑模定子磁链观测器，进一步提升了系统的参数鲁棒性。最后，通过仿真和实验验证了本文所提预测定子磁链控制方法的有效性和可行性，系统在参数失配情况下仍具有良好的稳态性能，显著减小了定子磁链与电磁转矩脉动。

To solve the problem of large steady-state error and poor parameter robustness of MPFC system predicted by traditional model of PMSM (permanent magnet synchronous motor), a multi-voltage vector selection method based on stator flux prediction error vector analysis was proposed. Firstly, the multi-voltage vector selection criteria for determining the region where the flux error vector is located were established by dividing the sectors according to the axis in the two-phase stationary coordinate system. Then, the predicted value of stator flux and the value function of stator flux in two-phase stationary coordinate system were used to calculate the action time of each voltage vector. In addition, a discrete sliding mode stator flux observer considering the mismatch of resistance and inductance parameters was designed, which further improves the parameter robustness of the system. Finally, the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed predictive stator flux control method are verified by simulation and experiments. The proposed method still has good steady-state performance under the condition of system parameter mismatch, and significantly reduces the stator flux and electromagnetic torque ripple.