土地生态安全是土地资源持续利用的核心，由人类活动造成的土地利用变化改变生态系统结构与功能，对区域生态安全系统产生严重影响。为探究近年来重庆市及2030年生态安全变化情况，以重庆市为研究对象，采用PLUS（patch-level land use simulation）模型模拟2030年自然发展、生态优先、发展优先情景下土地利用变化。基于生态学角度构建生态安全评价指标体系，并结合突变模型定量评价土地生态安全水平。结果表明重庆市土地利用类型空间分布差异较大，耕地面积减少3 995.14 km²，建设用地面积增加1 147.36 km²，实现城市快速发展；2000—2020年重庆市生态安全处于一般安全等级以上面积占比呈增加-降低-增加-减少趋势，总体呈上升趋势。同时三种情景下处于在相对安全及以上占64.53%、67.31%、55.97%；重庆市生态安全空间格局与人口密度、GDP等空间格局相反，与植被覆盖、坡度等自然数据空间格局相符。通过对往年及不同情景下的土地利用变化情况进行生态评定，为生态及经济高质量协同发展提供依据。

Land ecological security is the core of sustainable use of land resources, and land use changes caused by human activities change the structure and function of ecosystems, which have a serious impact on the regional ecological security system. In order to explore the changes in ecological security in Chongqing in recent years and in 2030, Chongqing was taken as the research object and PLUS (patch-level land use simulation) model was employed to simulate land use changes under the scenarios of natural development, ecological priority and development priority in 2030. Based on the ecological perspective, an ecological security evaluation index system was constructed, and the mutation model was combined to quantitatively evaluate the level of land ecological security. The results show that the spatial distribution of land use types in Chongqing is quite different, the cultivated land area decreased by 3 995.14 km², and the construction land area increased by 1 147.36 km², realizing rapid urban development. At the same time, 64.53%, 67.31% and 55.97% were relatively safe or above under the three scenarios. The spatial pattern of ecological security in Chongqing is opposite to the spatial pattern of population density and GDP, and consistent with the spatial pattern of natural data such as vegetation cover and slope. Through the ecological assessment of land use changes in previous years and under different scenarios, it provides a basis for high-quality coordinated development of ecology and economy.