为提升航空运输效率，减少运输成本和碳排放量等问题，采用演化博弈方法探讨政府和航司间货运联盟的影响因素，利用系统动力学模型（systematic dynamics, SD）对博弈演化过程进行仿真实验。结果表明，航司间的策略选择受投资成本、联盟收益的影响，政府的策略选择受航司交纳的碳排放惩罚系数、碳税补贴额度、社会收益及监管成本等因素的影响。从长远来看，政府应该建立动态的补贴机制和增加补贴的多样性，提高航司的创新性和核心竞争力。

In order to improve the efficiency of air transportation, reduce transportation costs and carbon emissions, the evolutionary game method was adopted to explore the influencing factors of the cargo alliance between the government and airlines. The system dynamics model (SD) was used to conduct simulation experiments on the game evolution process. The results indicate that the strategic choices between airlines are influenced by investment costs and alliance benefits, while the government's strategic choices are influenced by factors such as the carbon emission penalty coefficient paid by airlines, carbon tax subsidy amounts, social benefits, and regulatory costs. In the long run, the government should establish a dynamic subsidy mechanism and increase the diversity of subsidies to enhance the innovation and core competitiveness of airlines.