覆岩内部移动变形实测数据少、预计难度大、可靠性低。基于几何相似特征构建了依据地表沉陷实测数据预计覆岩内部移动变形的方法，该方法考虑了煤矿开采后覆岩移动变形导致的膨胀压缩。研究表明：预计离地表较近覆岩内部的移动变形时，可以不考虑覆岩的膨胀压缩，而预计离开采煤层较近覆岩内部的移动变形时，需要考虑覆岩的膨胀压缩；在开采边界附近，预计覆岩内部的移动变形可以不考虑膨胀压缩，而在开采中心附近则需要考虑膨胀压缩。研究结果有助于煤矿绿色安全开采。

The measured data of internal movement and deformation of the overburden are insufficient, the prediction is difficult and the reliability is low. A method was constructed based on geometric similarity characteristics to predict the internal movement and deformation of the overlying rock using measured surface subsidence data. This method considered the expansion and compression resulting from the movement and deformation of the overlying rock after coal mining. The research shows that when predicting the internal movement and deformation of the overlying rock near the surface. the expansion and compression of the rock can be disregarded. However, when predicting the internal movement and deformation near the mining coal seam, the expansion and compression need to be considered. Near the mining boundary, the expansion and compression can be disregarded, but in the center of the mining area, they need to be considered. The research results contribute to the green and safe mining of coal.