全球气候变化下的黄河上游径流量变化及其预测是流域生态水文研究的热点之一。利用2008—2020年流域内48个气象站的监测数据和头道拐水文站径流数据，系统分析了黄河上游流域径流量与气候要素变化的关系，并建立径流量预测模型。结果表明，单一月份的月平均气温、月降水量和月蒸散发量多未表现出显著的年际变化趋势，但年平均气温和年降水量显著上升，而年蒸散发量也有上升趋势但统计不显著；多数单一月份的月径流量和年径流量均在年际上呈显著增加趋势。在月平均气温、月降水量、月蒸散发量均与月径流量显著相关的基础上，基于气候要素建立的黄河上游流域径流量预测模型具有良好的预测效果。

The changes and prediction of runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River under global climate change are one of the hotspots in watershed ecological hydrological research. In 2008—2020, the relationship between runoff and the changes of climate factors in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin were systematically analyzed with the monitoring data from 48 meteorological stations in the basin and runoff data from the Toudaoguai hydrological station, while a runoff prediction model was also established. The results show that the monthly average temperature, monthly precipitation, and monthly evapotranspiration in a single month do not show a significant interannual variation trend in most months, but the annual average temperature and precipitation significantly increase, while the annual evapotranspiration also shows an upward trend, but the statistics are not significant. The monthly runoff of most single months and annual runoff shows interannual increasing trends significantly. Based on the significant correlations between monthly average temperature, monthly precipitation, and monthly evapotranspiration with monthly runoff, the climate factors-based runoff prediction model for the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin has good prediction performance.