基于GA-PSO-BP神经网络的气象能见度预测

邱国新 ,  殷利平 ,  刘长征 ,  梅平 ,  温华洋

科学技术与工程 ›› 2024, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (15) :6164-6171

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科学技术与工程 ›› 2024, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (15) :6164-6171 DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2305322
天文学、地球学

基于GA-PSO-BP神经网络的气象能见度预测

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Meteorological Visibility Prediction Based on GA-PSO-BP Neural Network

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摘要

针对安徽省气象能见度数据缺测问题,选取安徽省4种不同地形条件下的自动气象站点(黄山站、灵璧站、山南溪谷站、白泽湖站)2017—2019年的气象数据,首先采用灰色关联分析法筛选出与能见度联系紧密的气象要素,然后构建遗传算法(genetic algorithm, GA)和粒子群算法(particle swarm optimization algorithm, PSO)混合算法优化BP(back propagation)神经网络的预测模型,对4种不同地形条件下的自动气象站点的能见度进行预测,并与RF预测模型、XGBoost预测模型的预测效果进行对比,结果表明采用GA-PSO-BP神经网络预测模型无论在哪种地形条件下,预测误差更小,模型精度更高。

Abstract

In view of the lack of meteorological visibility data in Anhui Province, meteorological data from four automatic meteorological stations (Mount Huangshan Station, Lingbi Station, Shannan Xigu Station, and Baize Lake Station) under different terrain conditions in Anhui Province were selected from the years 2017 to 2019. The meteorological elements closely related to visibility were first identified using the gray correlation analysis method. Subsequently, a hybrid algorithm of genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) was employed to optimize the prediction model of the back propagation (BP) neural network. The visibility of automatic weather stations under four different terrain conditions was predicted, and the prediction results were compared with the RF prediction model and XGBoost prediction model. The results indicate that, under any terrain condition, the GA-PSO-BP neural network prediction model exhibits smaller prediction errors and higher model accuracy.

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邱国新, 殷利平, 刘长征, 梅平, 温华洋. 基于GA-PSO-BP神经网络的气象能见度预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2024, 24(15): 6164-6171 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2305322
QIU Guo-xin, YIN Li-ping, LIU Chang-zheng, MEI Ping, WEN Hua-yang. Meteorological Visibility Prediction Based on GA-PSO-BP Neural Network[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2024, 24(15): 6164-6171 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2305322

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金(61573190)

安徽省气象局科研项目(KM201907)

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