对航母编队反导拦截能力评估的准确性将影响中方导弹突防作战效能分析及任务筹划，因此展开航母编队一体化反导的效能评估模型构建和仿真分析。以美军典型航母战斗群为研究对象，分析其防空反导系统架构以及作战流程，并基于关键参数对探测雷达、拦截弹、密集阵、干扰装置等重要环节进行了机理分析与模型构建、优化，同时结合蓝方来袭武器状态参数进行了子系统效能概率以及联合反导概率分析。最后以典型阵位下的航母编队反导效能评估为例，验证了模型的可行性。仿真结果表明当航母编队在200 km以上的距离有效探测到飞行速度低于12 Ma的来袭弹时，其反导成功率能够达到90%以上。

The accuracy of evaluating the anti-missile interception capability of aircraft carrier formations will have an impact on our analysis of the effectiveness of missile breakthrough operations and mission planning. Therefore, a efficacy evaluation model for integrated anti-missile defense in aircraft carrier formations was developed and analyzed through simulation. A typical US aircraft carrier battle group was used as the research object to analyze its defensive anti-missile system architecture and operational processes. Mechanism analysis, model construction and optimization were conducted on key elements such as detection radar, interception missiles, dense arrays, and jamming devices based on crucial parameters. Furthermore, each system's efficacy probability and joint anti-missile probability were analyzed by incorporating blue force incoming weapon status parameters. Finally, the validity of the model was verified using a typical formation of an aircraft carrier as an example to evaluate the effectiveness of the anti-missile defense. The simulation results show that when the carrier formation effectively detects the incoming bombs with flying speed lower than Mach 12 at a distance of more than 200km, its anti-missile success rate can reach more than 90%.