斯里兰卡极端降水时空演变特征及趋势预测

尤立 ,  齐天杰 ,  胡春明

科学技术与工程 ›› 2024, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (12) :5152-5161

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科学技术与工程 ›› 2024, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (12) :5152-5161 DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2304005
水利工程

斯里兰卡极端降水时空演变特征及趋势预测

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Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Extreme Precipitation in Sri Lanka

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摘要

斯里兰卡是中国“一带一路”倡议的重要节点国家,极端降水对当地社会经济威胁较大,极易引发灾害。选取当地10个气象站2008—2020年的逐日降水资料,基于RClimDex模型计算斯里兰卡6个极端降水指标,利用经验正交函数分析、Morlet小波分析和重标极差法(R/S分析)等,分析极端降水事件的时空演变特征。结果表明:极端降水指数在时间分布上,除持续干旱指数(CDD)呈减少趋势外,其他各指数均为上升趋势;极端降水指数空间差异表现为北部沿海平原地带的极端降水强度高于南部沿海平原,拉特纳普勒市以西地区为斯里兰卡降水事件的多发区;极端降水指数周期性明显,绝大多数极端降水指数以6 ~ 7 a为第一主周期。R/S分析表明当地极端降水事件未来持续可能性较大。研究成果可为斯里兰卡极端气候预测、生态环境保护、防灾减灾工作等提供决策支持。

Abstract

Sri Lanka is an important node country of China's the Belt and Road Initiative. Extreme precipitation has posed a great threat to the local social economy and severe disaster consequences. Daily precipitation data from 10 local meteorological stations were selected from 2008 to 2020, 6 extreme rainfall indicators were calculated based on the RClimDex model, and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation events were analyzed by using methods such as empirical orthogonal function analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis and rescaled range analysis (R/S analysis), etc. The results show that the extreme precipitation indexes show an upward trend except for the continuous drought index (CDD). The extreme precipitation intensity in the northern coastal plain is higher than that in the southern coastal plain, and the area west of Ratnaple City is the most frequent area of rainfall events in Sri Lanka. The periodicity of extreme precipitation indices have a primary period of 6 ~ 7 a with the vast majority of extreme precipitation indices. The R/S analysis indicates that there is a high possibility of local extreme precipitation events continuing in the future. The research results can provide decision-making support for extreme climate prediction, ecological environment protection, disaster prevention and reduction work in Sri Lanka.

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尤立, 齐天杰, 胡春明. 斯里兰卡极端降水时空演变特征及趋势预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2024, 24(12): 5152-5161 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2304005
YOU Li, QI Tian-jie, HU Chun-ming. Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Extreme Precipitation in Sri Lanka[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2024, 24(12): 5152-5161 DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2304005

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中国-斯里兰卡水技术研究与示范联合中心

中国科学院中国-斯里兰卡联合科教中心

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