针对底水油藏的开发，在缺乏试井数据的情况下采用常规油藏物质平衡法以及试井分析方法均难以确定水驱控制储量，进而无法获得水体参数和特征来计算油田的水侵量。为了更加准确的预测水驱油田水侵量，结合生产动态资料，选择符合的水驱特征曲线计算水驱控制储量。在此基础上，考虑油环油、溶解气、水体等因素，建立物质平衡方程，通过亏空体积曲线法计算获得水侵量。利用Fetkvoitch拟稳态模型，采用试错法，优化计算水体体积和水侵系数，保证Fetkvoitch拟稳态模型求解的水侵量和亏空体积曲线法求解的水侵量最接近，得到最优的水体体积和水侵系数对未来生产动态中水侵量进行预测。运用油藏数值模拟软件建立的模型与本文提出两种的计算方法拟合结果对比可知的水体体积的误差为2.6%、水侵指数的误差为2.2%，计算结果准确，为底水油藏计算水侵量提供了可靠的依据，并为预测水侵量提供了新的方法。

For the development of bottom-water reservoirs, it is difficult to determine the water-drive control reserves by using the material balance equation and well testing analysis method in the absence of well testing data, which makes it challenging to obtain bottom water parameters and characteristics to calculate the water influx of the reservoir. To predict accurate water influx volume of water flooded reservoirs, production dynamics data was applied to build a compliant water-drive characteristic curve to calculate the water-drive control reserves. On this basis, the material balance equation was established based on volume change of the oil rim, dissolved gas and water, and the water influx was calculated by the net volume change curve. By using Fetkvoitch pseudo steady state model and trial-and-error method, the bottom water volume and water influx coefficient were optimized to ensure that the water influx solved by Fetkovitch pseudo-steady model was the close to that solved by the net volume change curve. The optimized bottom water volume and water influx coefficient were obtained to predict the water influx in future production performance. The model established by the reservoir numerical simulation software was compared with the calculted results of the proposed model. The relative deviation of the bottom water volume is 1.85%, and the relative deviation of the water influx coefficient is 1.6%. The calculation results are validated, and the proposed model coulde provide a reliable basis for predicting water influx and water flooding performance of the bottom-water reservoirs.