Science Technology and Engineering
1671-1815
2024
24
16
6659
6666
10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2304484
article
基于有序Logistic回归模型的北京高校男生有氧能力
Aerobic Capacity of Male Students in Beijing Colleges and Universities Based on Ordered Logistic Regression Modeling
为探索北京高校男生有氧能力的影响因素，通过随机抽样法抽取134名18~25岁北京高校男生，空腹抽静脉血测血液指标，用德国MetaMax 3B系统实时监测气体代谢，通过线性递增方案测得VO2max相对值。基于Spearman相关、有序Logistic回归等分析方法进行分析处理。结果表明：北京高校男生有序Logistic回归方程：Ln{P(Y≤1|x)/1-P(Y≤1|x)}=-2.757-0.067*X1-0.025*X2+0.066*X3+0.018*X4-0.009*X5；Ln{P(Y≤2|x)/1-P(Y≤2|x)}=-0.771-0.067*X1-0.025*X2+0.066*X3+0.018*X4-0.009*X5（X1=体重、X2=心率(heart rate, HR)、X3=每搏输出量(stroke volume, SVI)、X4=心室射血时间(ventricular ejection time, VET)、X5=血红蛋白(hemoglobin, HGB)）。回归方程模型系数综合检验步(step)、块(block)、模型(model)检验的P值均小于0.01；拟合优度检验的-2对数似然值(-2LL)为159.374，Cox&SnellR2为0.331，NagelkerkeR2为0.373；预测等级1准确率为45.5%，等级2准确率为100%，等级3准确率为100%，综合为81.8%，说明Logistic回归模型性能良好。Hosmer和Lemeshow检验预测值与观望值无显著性差异（P>0.05）。可见北京高校男生定量负荷心功能、血液指标与有氧能力的多元Logistic回归模型拟合度较好，且HR、SVI、VET、HGB是有氧运动能力的重要预测因素。
In order to explore the influencing factors of aerobic capacity of male students in Beijing colleges and universities, 134 male students aged 18~25 years old in Beijing colleges and universities were selected by random sampling method, and venous blood was drawn in fasting to measure the blood indexes, and gas metabolism was monitored in real time with the MetaMax 3B system from Germany, and the relative VO2max was measured by a linear incremental scheme. The results were analyzed and processed based on Spearman's correlation and ordered Logistic regression. The results showed that the ordered logistic regression equation for Beijing college boys: Ln{P(Y≤1|x)/1-P(Y≤1|x)}=-2.757-0.067*X1-0.025*X2+0.066*X3+0.018*X4-0.009*X5; Ln{P(Y≤2|x)/1-P(Y≤2|x)}=-0.771-0.067*X1-0.025*X2+0.066*X3+0.018*X4-0.009*X5 (X1=weight, X2=HR, X3=SVI, X4=VET, X5=HGB). The p-values of the combined regression equation model coefficients test step, block, and model tests were less than 0.01; the -2 log likelihood value (-2LL) of the goodness-of-fit test was 159.374, the Cox & Snell R2 was 0.331, and the Nagelkerke R2 was 0.373; the predicted rank 1 accuracy was 45.5%, rank 2 accuracy was 100%, rank 3 accuracy was 100%, and the combined was 81.8%, indicating that the logistic regression model performed well. Hosmer and Lemeshow test predicted that there was no significant difference between the predicted values and the observed values (P>0.05). The multivariate Logistic regression model of quantitative loading cardiac function, blood indexes and aerobic capacity of male students in Beijing colleges and universities has a good fit, and HR, SVI, VET and HGB are important predictors of aerobic capacity.
有氧能力；生长和发育；运动；男生；有序Logistic回归模型
aerobic capacity; growth and development; exercise; males; ordered logistic regression models
李闯涛,高晓嶙,王昊,王文迪
Li Chuangtao, Gao Xiaolin, Wang Hao, Wang Wendi
jsygc/article/abstract/2304484