矿井复杂环境下人因事故的动态个体风险
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1.安徽理工大学矿业工程学院;2.安徽理工大学深部煤炭安全开采与环境保护全国重点实验室

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TD32

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国家自然科学基金(52504071);中国工程院重大咨询项目(2025-XBZD-12);国家科技重大专项(2024ZD1700206)


Development path of intelligent dynamic individual risk prevention technology for human-factor accidents in complex mine environments
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1.School of Mining Engineering,Anhui University of Science and Technology;2.National Key Laboratory of Deep Coal Safety Mining and Environmental Protection,Anhui University of Science and Technology

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    摘要:

    人因事故作为制约矿井本质安全水平提升与智能化转型进程的核心障碍,具有频发性、隐蔽性、连锁性与可干预性等特征。随着矿山向高效协同与智能作业持续演进,对个体风险的动态识别、前馈预测与闭环干预能力提出更高要求。基于具身智能与系统智能协同融合,提出人因事故动态个体风险智能预防的科学构想,旨在形成具备持续学习、自适应与可治理能力的智能化预防体系。面向多主体协作环境中信息采集碎片化、数据工程难以积累、建模机制缺乏解释性、策略执行不可审计及系统协同缺乏治理支撑的5大挑战,构建任务驱动的场景基准、多智能体分布式干预机制与多源数据对齐的持续演化范式,系统形成以“环境感知-行为预测-系统协同-策略干预”为主线的整体技术框架。围绕风险演化建模、可信推理输出、近失险肇数据工程、个体画像更新与策略闭环执行5个关键科学问题,系统开展动态工况机制建模、多尺度感知决策协同、模型验证稳健泛化、平台能力迁移部署与制度策略融合治理5个方向攻关,加快核心技术突破与系统化部署进程,为提升矿井作业安全水平、推动高危行业智能化升级与构建国家本质安全型工业体系提供坚实的理论支撑与工程路径。

    Abstract:

    Human-factor accidents are a major barrier to improving intrinsic mine safety and advancing intelligent transformation. They are characterized by high frequency, concealment, cascading effects, and preventability through intervention. As mining operations evolve toward efficient collaboration and intelligent operation, higher requirements are placed on dynamic individual risk identification, feedforward prediction, and closed-loop intervention. Based on the integration of embodied intelligence and system intelligence, a scientific concept of intelligent prevention for dynamic individual risk of human-factor accidents was proposed. The concept was designed to establish an intelligent prevention system with continuous learning, adaptation, and governance capabilities. Five major challenges were identified in multi-agent collaborative environments, including fragmented information acquisition, limited accumulation of data engineering resources, poor interpretability of modeling mechanisms, insufficient auditability of strategy execution, and inadequate governance support for system collaboration. A task-driven scenario benchmark, a distributed multi-agent intervention mechanism, and a continuously evolving paradigm for multi-source data alignment were constructed. An integrated technical framework was then established along the main pathway of “environmental perception–behavior prediction–system collaboration–strategy intervention.” Five key scientific issues were further identified, including risk evolution modeling, trustworthy reasoning outputs, near-miss data engineering, individual profile updating, and closed-loop strategy execution. Accordingly, five research directions are proposed, including dynamic operating-condition mechanism modeling, multi-scale perception–decision collaboration, robust model validation and generalization, transferable deployment of platform capabilities, and integrated governance of institutional mechanisms and intervention strategies. These directions accelerate breakthroughs in core technologies and systematic deployment. They provide theoretical support and an engineering pathway for improving mine operational safety, advancing the intelligent transformation of high-risk industries, and establishing an intrinsically safe national industrial system.

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吕鑫,袁亮,张通,等. 矿井复杂环境下人因事故的动态个体风险[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-07-02
  • 最后修改日期:2026-09-17
  • 录用日期:2026-09-29
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