过站航班地面运行进程动态耦合预测
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内蒙古工业大学力学与航空学院

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V355;TP391

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内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2025QN06017);内蒙古自治区一流学科科研专项项目(YLXKZX-NGD-023);内蒙古自治区本级引进人才科研支持项目(DC2400002152)


Dynamic Coupling Prediction of Ground Operation Process for Turnaround Flights
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College of Mechanics and Aeronautics,Inner Mongolia University of Technology

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    摘要:

    为精确捕捉高密度运行下枢纽机场过站航班地面运行进程的时空耦合特性,提出一种融合多维时空特征与双向长短期记忆网络的动态耦合预测方法。该方法将过站运行进程解构为18个关键里程碑节点,通过提取停机位空间距离矩阵与多航班时间重叠因子,量化多进程协同决策下的资源竞争与演化规律;在此基础上,构建多进程时空特征关联框架,引入图注意力机制与动态误差反馈权重分配,实现各节点实际状态的实时捕捉与模型权重的滚动更新。基于通过飞常准获取的北京大兴国际机场5767架次过站航班运行记录开展验证,结果表明:模型对18个进程节点的综合平均绝对误差为1.05 min,均方根误差为1.34 min;在10%高斯噪声干扰下,平均绝对误差仅上升0.27 min。消融实验进一步证实了时间与空间关联因子对残差补偿及精度提升的主导作用。该方法通过联合考虑航班内部进程演化与邻近航班关联影响,可为过站保障进程监控、保障任务衔接及离港协同提供滚动预测支持。

    Abstract:

    In order to precisely capture the spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of ground operation processes for turnaround flights at hub airports under high-density operations, a dynamic coupling prediction methodology combining multi-dimensional spatiotemporal features with a bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network is proposed. The turnaround process is first deconstructed into 18 critical milestone nodes, where the spatial distance matrix of aircraft stands and multi-flight time overlap factors are extracted to quantitatively model resource competition and evolutionary dynamics under multi-process collaborative decision-making. On this basis, a multi-process spatiotemporal feature correlation framework is developed, incorporating a graph attention mechanism and a dynamic error feedback weight allocation scheme to enable the real-time capture of actual node states and rolling updates of model weights. Validation using records of 5,767 turnaround flights at Beijing Daxing International Airport, obtained through VariFlight, demonstrates that the model achieves an overall mean absolute error of 1.05 min and a root mean square error of 1.34 min across all 18 nodes. Under a 10% Gaussian noise perturbation, the mean absolute error escalates by merely 0.27 min. Ablation studies further confirm the dominant role of temporal and spatial correlation factors in residual compensation and accuracy enhancement. By jointly considering within-flight process evolution and interactions with neighboring flights, the proposed method can provide rolling prediction support for turnaround progress monitoring, coordination of ground handling tasks, and collaborative departure operations.

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李彪,高梓翔,刘润齐,等. 过站航班地面运行进程动态耦合预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-06-05
  • 最后修改日期:2026-09-22
  • 录用日期:2026-09-29
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