交通荷载下埋地管道力学响应的机器学习预测
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1.苏州科技大学土木工程学院;2.山东省交通科学研究院;3.中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所岩土力学与工程安全全国重点实验室

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TU990.3

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Machine Learning Prediction of Mechanical Response of Buried Pipelines Under Traffic Loads
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1.School of Civil Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology;2.Shandong Transportation Institute;3.National Key Laboratory of Geotechnical Mechanics and Engineering Safety, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan

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    摘要:

    随着城市地下管网规模的扩大,地面交通荷载对埋地管道的安全运行构成显著挑战。传统的数值分析方法计算成本高,难以实现力学响应的快速实时预测。基于FLAC3D数值模拟产生的样本数据,构建支持向量机(SVM)、随机森林(RF)及极端梯度提升树(XGBoost)三种预测模型,采用贝叶斯算法进行超参数优化的方法系统对比各模型在静、动荷载工况下对管道、土体竖向位移与应力的预测性能。结果表明:模型预测结果从差到好依次为SVM支持向量机、RF随机森林、XGBoost梯度提升算法,特征重要性量化分析显示,荷载幅值是主导管土力学响应的核心主控因素。研究成果可为埋地管道力学响应的快速数值估算与参数化分析提供理论支撑,为后续现场实测预测模型的构建提供方法参考。

    Abstract:

    With the continuous expansion of urban underground pipeline networks, ground traffic loads have imposed significant challenges to the safe operation of buried pipelines. Conventional numerical analysis methods, however, are constrained by high computational costs, making it difficult to achieve rapid and real-time pre-diction of mechanical responses. To address this gap, a sample dataset was generated through FLAC3D nu-merical simulations. On this basis, three machine learning prediction models—support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were established, with their hyperparameters optimized via the Bayesian algorithm. The prediction performances of the three models for vertical displace-ments and stresses of both pipelines and surrounding soil under static and dynamic loading conditions were systematically compared. Results indicate that the prediction accuracy ranks in ascending order: SVM, RF, and XGBoost. Furthermore, quantitative analysis of feature importance was conducted, and load amplitude was identified as the dominant controlling factor governing the mechanical responses of the pipe-soil system. The study provides an efficient approach for rapid numerical estimation and parametric analysis of the mechanical responses of buried pipelines, and offers a methodological reference for the subsequent development of field measurement-based prediction models.

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姜玥,焦雨晨,吴文娟,等. 交通荷载下埋地管道力学响应的机器学习预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-05-22
  • 最后修改日期:2026-09-28
  • 录用日期:2026-09-29
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