基于生存分析与分位数回归的电动自行车超车持续时间模型:以桂林市非机动车道无人机航拍数据为例
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桂林电子科技大学广西智慧交通重点实验室

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U491

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国家自然科学基金(52462048);广西自然科学基金(2024GXNSFAA010278)


A Model of Electric Bicycle Overtaking Duration Based on Survival Analysis and Quantile Regression: A Case Study Based on UAV Aerial Survey Data of Non-motorized Lanes in Guilin
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Guangxi Key Laboratory of Smart Transportation,Guilin University of Electronic Technology

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    摘要:

    为探究城市非机动车道内电动自行车超车行为特性,基于无人机航拍数据提取多维运动学指标,构建融合骑手社会属性与微观驾驶风格的Log-Logistic加速失效时间(Accelerated Failure Time,AFT)模型,解析超车持续时间的总体影响因素;同时,考虑到电动自行车超车持续时间非负且右偏的统计特征,引入对数分位数回归(Log-Quantile Regression,L-QR)模型,以揭示各影响因素在不同分位点的异质性影响。AFT模型表明,超车距离、超车车辆初末速度、初始速度差、骑手类型及驾驶风格均对超车持续时间具有显著影响;超车距离每增加1个单位,预期超车时间延长2.35%;超车车辆初、末速度每增加1个单位,超车时间分别缩短7.39%和6.03%;相较于普通骑手,外卖骑手超车持续时间显著缩短2.37%。L-QR模型进一步揭示了影响机制的分位异质性,超车距离与车辆速度对超车时间具有全局显著性,而骑手的社会属性与驾驶风格在0.25≤τ≤0.75显著影响超车持续时间,在极短时与极长时超车场景下统计显著性有所下降,其边际效应受到交通环境的约束而减弱。研究结果可为优化非机动车道设计和改善交通管理提供理论依据。

    Abstract:

    To investigate the characteristics of electric bicycle overtaking behavior in urban non-motorized lanes, multidimensional kinematic indicators were extracted from unmanned aerial vehicle aerial survey data, and a Log-Logistic Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model incorporating riders’ social attributes and microscopic riding styles was developed to analyze the overall influencing factors of overtaking duration. Meanwhile, considering the non-negative and right-skewed statistical characteristics of electric bicycle overtaking duration, a Log-Quantile Regression (L-QR) model was introduced to reveal the heterogeneous effects of various influencing factors at different quantiles. The AFT model shows that overtaking distance, the initial and final speeds of the overtaking vehicle, initial speed difference, rider type, and riding style all have significant effects on overtaking duration; for each one-unit increase in overtaking distance, the expected overtaking duration increases by 2.35%; for each one-unit increase in the initial and final speeds of the overtaking vehicle, the overtaking duration decreases by 7.39% and 6.03%, respectively; compared with ordinary riders, food delivery riders have a significantly shorter overtaking duration, with a reduction of 2.37%. The L-QR model further reveals the quantile heterogeneity of the influencing mechanisms, indicating that overtaking distance and vehicle speed have globally significant effects on overtaking? duration, whereas riders’ social attributes and riding styles significantly affect overtaking duration only in the quantile range of 0.25≤τ≤0.75 . In extremely short- and long-duration overtaking scenarios, their statistical significance decreases, and their marginal effects are weakened due to the constraints of the traffic environment. The findings can provide a theoretical basis for optimizing non-motorized lane design and improving traffic management.

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<p>周旦,龙云溦,张鑫迎,等. 基于生存分析与分位数回归的电动自行车超车持续时间模型:以桂林市非机动车道无人机航拍数据为例[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-05-20
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-23
  • 录用日期:2026-09-04
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